The UK's suitability for Aedes albopictus in current and future climates

S. Metelmann; C. Caminade; A. E. Jones; Jolyon Medlock; M. Baylis; A. P. Morse

doi:10.1098/rsif.2018.0761

The UK's suitability for Aedes albopictus in current and future climates

S. Metelmann^*, C. Caminade, A. E. Jones, Jolyon Medlock, M. Baylis, A. P. Morse

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus is able to transmit various pathogens to humans and animals and it has already caused minor outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya in southern Europe. Alarmingly, it is spreading northwards and its eggs have been found in the UK in 2016 and 2017. Climate-driven models can help to analyse whether this originally subtropical species could become established in northern Europe. But so far, these models have not considered the impact of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) experienced by mosquitoes in the field. Here, we describe a dynamical model for the life cycle of Ae. albopictus, taking into account the DTR, rainfall, photoperiod and human population density. We develop a new metric for habitat suitability and drive our model with different climate data sets to analyse the UK's suitability for this species. For now, most of the UK seems to be rather unsuitable, except for some densely populated and high importation risk areas in southeast England. But this picture changes in the next 50 years: future scenarios suggest that Ae. albopictus could become established over almost all of England and Wales, indicating the need for continued mosquito surveillance.

Original language	English
Article number	20180761
Journal	Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume	16
Issue number	152
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2018.0761
Publication status	Published - 1 Mar 2019

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu). The UKCP09 data have been made available by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) under licence from the Met Office, Newcastle University, University of East Anglia and Proud-man Oceanographic Laboratory. These organizations accept no responsibility for any inaccuracies or omissions in the data, nor for any loss or damage directly or indirectly caused to any person or body by reason of, or arising out of, any use of these data. Future climate scenarios used were taken from the NEX-GDDP dataset, prepared by the Climate Analytics Group and NASA Ames Research Center using the NASA Earth Exchange, and distributed by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

Keywords

Aedes albopictus
Diurnal temperature range
Dynamic model
Suitability analysis
UK

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1098/rsif.2018.0761

Cite this

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title = "The UK's suitability for Aedes albopictus in current and future climates",

abstract = "The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus is able to transmit various pathogens to humans and animals and it has already caused minor outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya in southern Europe. Alarmingly, it is spreading northwards and its eggs have been found in the UK in 2016 and 2017. Climate-driven models can help to analyse whether this originally subtropical species could become established in northern Europe. But so far, these models have not considered the impact of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) experienced by mosquitoes in the field. Here, we describe a dynamical model for the life cycle of Ae. albopictus, taking into account the DTR, rainfall, photoperiod and human population density. We develop a new metric for habitat suitability and drive our model with different climate data sets to analyse the UK's suitability for this species. For now, most of the UK seems to be rather unsuitable, except for some densely populated and high importation risk areas in southeast England. But this picture changes in the next 50 years: future scenarios suggest that Ae. albopictus could become established over almost all of England and Wales, indicating the need for continued mosquito surveillance.",

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note = "Funding Information: We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu). The UKCP09 data have been made available by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) under licence from the Met Office, Newcastle University, University of East Anglia and Proud-man Oceanographic Laboratory. These organizations accept no responsibility for any inaccuracies or omissions in the data, nor for any loss or damage directly or indirectly caused to any person or body by reason of, or arising out of, any use of these data. Future climate scenarios used were taken from the NEX-GDDP dataset, prepared by the Climate Analytics Group and NASA Ames Research Center using the NASA Earth Exchange, and distributed by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.",

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The UK's suitability for Aedes albopictus in current and future climates

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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