Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence

Moritz U.G. Kraemer*, Verity Hill, Christopher Ruis, Simon Dellicour, Sumali Bajaj, John T. McCrone, Guy Baele, Kris V. Parag, Anya Lindström Battle, Bernardo Gutierrez, Ben Jackson, Rachel Colquhoun, Áine O'Toole, Brennan Klein, Alessandro Vespignani, Erik Volz, Nuno R. Faria, David M. Aanensen, Nicholas J. Loman, Louis Du PlessisSimon Cauchemez, Andrew Rambaut, Samuel V. Scarpino, Oliver G. Pybus

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)889-895
Number of pages7
JournalScience
Volume373
Issue number6557
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 20 Aug 2021
Externally publishedYes

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© 2021 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.

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