TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatial growth rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in England, September 2020-December 2021
AU - The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium
AU - Smallman-Raynor, M. R.
AU - Cliff, A. D.
AU - Robson, Samuel C.
AU - Connor, Thomas R.
AU - Loman, Nicholas J.
AU - Golubchik, Tanya
AU - Martinez Nunez, Rocio T.
AU - Bonsall, David
AU - Rambaut, Andrew
AU - Snell, Luke B.
AU - Livett, Rich
AU - Ludden, Catherine
AU - Corden, Sally
AU - Nastouli, Eleni
AU - Nebbia, Gaia
AU - Johnston, Ian
AU - Lythgoe, Katrina
AU - Torok, M. Estee
AU - Goodfellow, Ian G.
AU - Prieto, Jacqui A.
AU - Saeed, Kordo
AU - Jackson, David K.
AU - Aggarwal, Dinesh
AU - Curran, Martin D.
AU - Parmar, Surendra
AU - Underwood, Anthony P.
AU - Osman, Husam
AU - Chand, Meera
AU - de Angelis, Daniela
AU - Peacock, Sharon J.
AU - Muir, Peter
AU - Robinson, Esther
AU - Kidd, Stephen P.
AU - Bosworth, Andrew
AU - Iturriza-Gomara, Miren
AU - Asad, Hibo
AU - McKerr, Caoimhe
AU - Ahmad, Shazaad S.Y.
AU - Machin, Nicholas W.
AU - Cole, Kevin
AU - Hopes, Richard
AU - Chalker, Vicki
AU - Harrison, Ian
AU - Percival, Benita
AU - Bibby, David
AU - Dabrera, Gavin
AU - Ellaby, Nicholas
AU - Gallagher, Eileen
AU - Lackenby, Angie
AU - Twohig, Katherine A.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Cambridge University Press. All rights reserved.
PY - 2022/7/20
Y1 - 2022/7/20
N2 - This paper uses a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis to assess the spatial growth rate of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the local authority areas of England, September 2020-December 2021. Using the genomic surveillance records of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, the analysis identifies a substantial (7.6-fold) difference in the average rate of spatial growth of 37 sample lineages, from the slowest (Delta AY.4.3) to the fastest (Omicron BA.1). Spatial growth of the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA) variant was found to be 2.81× faster than the Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY) variant and 3.76× faster than the Alpha (B.1.1.7 and Q) variant. In addition to AY.4.2 (a designated variant under investigation, VUI-21OCT-01), three Delta sublineages (AY.43, AY.98 and AY.120) were found to display a statistically faster rate of spatial growth than the parent lineage and would seem to merit further investigation. We suggest that the monitoring of spatial growth rates is a potentially valuable adjunct to outbreak response procedures for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in a defined population.
AB - This paper uses a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis to assess the spatial growth rate of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the local authority areas of England, September 2020-December 2021. Using the genomic surveillance records of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, the analysis identifies a substantial (7.6-fold) difference in the average rate of spatial growth of 37 sample lineages, from the slowest (Delta AY.4.3) to the fastest (Omicron BA.1). Spatial growth of the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA) variant was found to be 2.81× faster than the Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY) variant and 3.76× faster than the Alpha (B.1.1.7 and Q) variant. In addition to AY.4.2 (a designated variant under investigation, VUI-21OCT-01), three Delta sublineages (AY.43, AY.98 and AY.120) were found to display a statistically faster rate of spatial growth than the parent lineage and would seem to merit further investigation. We suggest that the monitoring of spatial growth rates is a potentially valuable adjunct to outbreak response procedures for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in a defined population.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85135596528&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1017/S0950268822001285
DO - 10.1017/S0950268822001285
M3 - Article
C2 - 35855577
AN - SCOPUS:85135596528
SN - 0950-2688
VL - 150
JO - Epidemiology and Infection
JF - Epidemiology and Infection
M1 - e145
ER -
