Shut and re-open: The role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe

Helena B. Stage; Joseph Shingleton; Sanmitra Ghosh; Francesca Scarabel; Lorenzo Pellis; Thomas Finnie

doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0277

Shut and re-open: The role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe

Helena B. Stage, Joseph Shingleton, Sanmitra Ghosh, Francesca Scarabel, Lorenzo Pellis, Thomas Finnie

COVID-19 Response

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalizations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that school closures contribute to a reduction in the growth rate approximately 7 days after implementation. Limited school attendance, such as older students sitting exams or the partial return of younger year groups, does not appear to significantly affect community transmission. In countries where community transmission is generally low, such as Denmark or Norway, a large-scale reopening of schools while controlling or suppressing the epidemic appears feasible. However, school reopening can contribute to statistically significant increases in the growth rate in countries like Germany, where community transmission is relatively high. In all regions, a combination of low classroom occupancy and robust test-and-trace measures were in place. Our findings underscore the need for a cautious evaluation of reopening strategies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Original language	English
Article number	20200277
Journal	Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
Volume	376
Issue number	1829
Early online date	31 May 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0277
Publication status	Published - 19 Jul 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information: H.B.S. and L.P. are funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant no. 202562/Z/16/Z). F.S. is funded by the CIHR 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) rapid research programme. L.P. and F.S. are also supported by the UKRI through the JUNIPER Modelling Consortium (grant no. MR/V038613/1). S.G. was supported by the Medical Research Council (Unit programme no. MC UU 00002/11). J.S. and T.F. are funded through the Department for Health and Social Care grant in aid funding to Public Health England.

Open Access: Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

Publishers Copyright: © 2021 The Authors.

Citation: Stage Helena B., Shingleton Joseph, Ghosh Sanmitra, Scarabel Francesca, Pellis Lorenzo and Finnie Thomas 2021Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in EuropePhil. Trans. R. Soc. B3762020027720200277

DOI: http://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0277

Keywords

COVID-19
non-pharmaceutical interventions
school closure
school reopening

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1098/rstb.2020.0277Licence: CC BY

Stage2021ShutAndRe-OpenTheRoleOfSchools.Phil.Trans.R.Soc.BFinal published version, 1.07 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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abstract = "We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalizations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that school closures contribute to a reduction in the growth rate approximately 7 days after implementation. Limited school attendance, such as older students sitting exams or the partial return of younger year groups, does not appear to significantly affect community transmission. In countries where community transmission is generally low, such as Denmark or Norway, a large-scale reopening of schools while controlling or suppressing the epidemic appears feasible. However, school reopening can contribute to statistically significant increases in the growth rate in countries like Germany, where community transmission is relatively high. In all regions, a combination of low classroom occupancy and robust test-and-trace measures were in place. Our findings underscore the need for a cautious evaluation of reopening strategies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.",

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note = "Funding Information: H.B.S. and L.P. are funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant no. 202562/Z/16/Z). F.S. is funded by the CIHR 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) rapid research programme. L.P. and F.S. are also supported by the UKRI through the JUNIPER Modelling Consortium (grant no. MR/V038613/1). S.G. was supported by the Medical Research Council (Unit programme no. MC UU 00002/11). J.S. and T.F. are funded through the Department for Health and Social Care grant in aid funding to Public Health England. Open Access: Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. Publishers Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 The Authors. Citation: Stage Helena B., Shingleton Joseph, Ghosh Sanmitra, Scarabel Francesca, Pellis Lorenzo and Finnie Thomas 2021Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in EuropePhil. Trans. R. Soc. B3762020027720200277 DOI: http://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0277",

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N1 - Funding Information: H.B.S. and L.P. are funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant no. 202562/Z/16/Z). F.S. is funded by the CIHR 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) rapid research programme. L.P. and F.S. are also supported by the UKRI through the JUNIPER Modelling Consortium (grant no. MR/V038613/1). S.G. was supported by the Medical Research Council (Unit programme no. MC UU 00002/11). J.S. and T.F. are funded through the Department for Health and Social Care grant in aid funding to Public Health England. Open Access: Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. Publishers Copyright: © 2021 The Authors. Citation: Stage Helena B., Shingleton Joseph, Ghosh Sanmitra, Scarabel Francesca, Pellis Lorenzo and Finnie Thomas 2021Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in EuropePhil. Trans. R. Soc. B3762020027720200277 DOI: http://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0277

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N2 - We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalizations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that school closures contribute to a reduction in the growth rate approximately 7 days after implementation. Limited school attendance, such as older students sitting exams or the partial return of younger year groups, does not appear to significantly affect community transmission. In countries where community transmission is generally low, such as Denmark or Norway, a large-scale reopening of schools while controlling or suppressing the epidemic appears feasible. However, school reopening can contribute to statistically significant increases in the growth rate in countries like Germany, where community transmission is relatively high. In all regions, a combination of low classroom occupancy and robust test-and-trace measures were in place. Our findings underscore the need for a cautious evaluation of reopening strategies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

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Shut and re-open: The role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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