Risk of Liver Cirrhosis in HBV/HCV-Infected Individuals with First-Degree Relatives Who Have Liver Cancer: Development and Validation of a Simple Model

Identification of high-risk population among hepatitis B virus (HBV)/hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected individuals with first-degree relatives (FDR) who have liver cancer is important to implement precise intervention. A cross-sectional study was conducted under the framework of a population-based Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC), aimed to develop and validate a simple noninvasive model that could assess and stratify cirrhosis risk, in HBV/HCV-infected individuals with FDRs who have liver cancer. People who participated in liver cancer screening in Henan province were enrolled. Using the data set consisting of participants admitted from October 1, 2013, to December 31, 2016, a 24-point scale risk score model was developed through logistic regression, based on educational background, dietary habit, smoking index, cooking oil fume exposure, history of severe trauma, HBV/HCV infection status, history of diabetes, history of hyperlipidemia, and parent history of liver cancer. The model showed excellent discrimination with area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.875 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.853-0.896] and fair calibration with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test P ¼ 0.106. The prevalence rates in the medium- and high-risk groups were 2.87 (95% CI, 1.94-4.25) and 47.57 (95% CI, 31.59-71.63) times of low-risk group, respectively. After internal validation, bias-corrected AUROC was 0.874 (95% CI, 0.873-0.875). In the external validation data set consisting of participants admitted from January 1, 2017, to October 31, 2018, the model had achieved similar discrimination, calibration, and risk stratification ability. In conclusion, the risk score model we developed can be a practical tool for the screening and prevention of liver cirrhosis among HBV/HCV-infected individuals with FDRs who have liver cancer. Prevention Relevance: We created a simple and noninvasive cirrhosis risk model for individuals infected by HBV/HCV who have FDRs with liver cancer. This model is useful not only for the prognosis of HBV/HCV infection, but also for the prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma.