Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material

S. J. Leadbetter; S. Andronopoulos; Peter Bedwell; K. Chevalier-Jabet; G. Geertsema; F. Gering; T. Hamburger; A. R. Jones; H. Klein; I. Korsakissok; A. Mathieu; T. Pázmándi; R. Périllat; Cs Rudas; A. Sogachev; P. Szántó; J. M. Tomas; C. Twenhöfel; H. De Vries; J. Wellings

doi:10.1051/radiopro/2020012

Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material

S. J. Leadbetter^*, S. Andronopoulos, Peter Bedwell, K. Chevalier-Jabet, G. Geertsema, F. Gering, T. Hamburger, A. R. Jones, H. Klein, I. Korsakissok, A. Mathieu, T. Pázmándi, R. Périllat, Cs Rudas, A. Sogachev, P. Szántó, J. M. Tomas, C. Twenhöfel, H. De Vries, J. Wellings

^*Corresponding author for this work

HP: Environmental Assessments

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

During the pre-release and early phase of an accidental release of radionuclides into the atmosphere there are few or no measurements, and dispersion models are used to assess the consequences and assist in determining appropriate countermeasures. However, uncertainties are high during this early phase and it is important to characterise these uncertainties and, if possible, include them in any dispersion modelling. In this paper we examine three sources of uncertainty in dispersion modelling; uncertainty in the source term, uncertainty in the meteorological information used to drive the dispersion model and intrinsic uncertainty within the dispersion model. We also explore the possibility of ranking these uncertainties dependent on their impact on the dispersion model outputs.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	S51-S55
Journal	Radioprotection
Volume	55
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1051/radiopro/2020012
Publication status	Published - 1 May 2020

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Acknowledgement. The work described in this paper was conducted within the CONFIDENCE project which was part of the CONCERT project. This project has received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014– 2018 under grant agreement No. 662287.

Publisher Copyright:
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences 2020.

Keywords

Atmospheric dispersion model
CONFIDENCE
Ensemble simulation
Source terms
Uncertainty

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1051/radiopro/2020012

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Leadbetter, S. J., Andronopoulos, S., Bedwell, P., Chevalier-Jabet, K., Geertsema, G., Gering, F., Hamburger, T., Jones, A. R., Klein, H., Korsakissok, I., Mathieu, A., Pázmándi, T., Périllat, R., Rudas, C., Sogachev, A., Szántó, P., Tomas, J. M., Twenhöfel, C., De Vries, H., & Wellings, J. (2020). Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material. Radioprotection, 55, S51-S55. https://doi.org/10.1051/radiopro/2020012

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abstract = "During the pre-release and early phase of an accidental release of radionuclides into the atmosphere there are few or no measurements, and dispersion models are used to assess the consequences and assist in determining appropriate countermeasures. However, uncertainties are high during this early phase and it is important to characterise these uncertainties and, if possible, include them in any dispersion modelling. In this paper we examine three sources of uncertainty in dispersion modelling; uncertainty in the source term, uncertainty in the meteorological information used to drive the dispersion model and intrinsic uncertainty within the dispersion model. We also explore the possibility of ranking these uncertainties dependent on their impact on the dispersion model outputs.",

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author = "Leadbetter, {S. J.} and S. Andronopoulos and Peter Bedwell and K. Chevalier-Jabet and G. Geertsema and F. Gering and T. Hamburger and Jones, {A. R.} and H. Klein and I. Korsakissok and A. Mathieu and T. P{\'a}zm{\'a}ndi and R. P{\'e}rillat and Cs Rudas and A. Sogachev and P. Sz{\'a}nt{\'o} and Tomas, {J. M.} and C. Twenh{\"o}fel and {De Vries}, H. and J. Wellings",

note = "Funding Information: Acknowledgement. The work described in this paper was conducted within the CONFIDENCE project which was part of the CONCERT project. This project has received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014– 2018 under grant agreement No. 662287. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Authors, published by EDP Sciences 2020.",

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Leadbetter, SJ, Andronopoulos, S, Bedwell, P, Chevalier-Jabet, K, Geertsema, G, Gering, F, Hamburger, T, Jones, AR, Klein, H, Korsakissok, I, Mathieu, A, Pázmándi, T, Périllat, R, Rudas, C, Sogachev, A, Szántó, P, Tomas, JM, Twenhöfel, C, De Vries, H & Wellings, J 2020, 'Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material', Radioprotection, vol. 55, pp. S51-S55. https://doi.org/10.1051/radiopro/2020012

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AU - Andronopoulos, S.

AU - Bedwell, Peter

AU - Chevalier-Jabet, K.

AU - Geertsema, G.

AU - Gering, F.

AU - Hamburger, T.

AU - Jones, A. R.

AU - Klein, H.

AU - Korsakissok, I.

AU - Mathieu, A.

AU - Pázmándi, T.

AU - Périllat, R.

AU - Rudas, Cs

AU - Sogachev, A.

AU - Szántó, P.

AU - Tomas, J. M.

AU - Twenhöfel, C.

AU - De Vries, H.

AU - Wellings, J.

N1 - Funding Information: Acknowledgement. The work described in this paper was conducted within the CONFIDENCE project which was part of the CONCERT project. This project has received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014– 2018 under grant agreement No. 662287. Publisher Copyright: © The Authors, published by EDP Sciences 2020.

PY - 2020/5/1

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N2 - During the pre-release and early phase of an accidental release of radionuclides into the atmosphere there are few or no measurements, and dispersion models are used to assess the consequences and assist in determining appropriate countermeasures. However, uncertainties are high during this early phase and it is important to characterise these uncertainties and, if possible, include them in any dispersion modelling. In this paper we examine three sources of uncertainty in dispersion modelling; uncertainty in the source term, uncertainty in the meteorological information used to drive the dispersion model and intrinsic uncertainty within the dispersion model. We also explore the possibility of ranking these uncertainties dependent on their impact on the dispersion model outputs.

AB - During the pre-release and early phase of an accidental release of radionuclides into the atmosphere there are few or no measurements, and dispersion models are used to assess the consequences and assist in determining appropriate countermeasures. However, uncertainties are high during this early phase and it is important to characterise these uncertainties and, if possible, include them in any dispersion modelling. In this paper we examine three sources of uncertainty in dispersion modelling; uncertainty in the source term, uncertainty in the meteorological information used to drive the dispersion model and intrinsic uncertainty within the dispersion model. We also explore the possibility of ranking these uncertainties dependent on their impact on the dispersion model outputs.

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JO - Radioprotection

JF - Radioprotection

ER -

Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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