Preparing for PrEP: Estimating the size of the population eligible for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in England

Holly D. Mitchell, Sarika Desai, Hamish Mohammed*, Koh Jun Ong, Martina Furegato, Victoria Hall, Monica Desai, John Michael Saunders, Gwenda Hughes, Nigel Field, Owen Gill

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives The size of the population of men who have sex with men (MSM) who may be eligible for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (HIV-PrEP) in England remains unknown. To plan for a national PrEP implementation trial, we estimated the number of MSM attending sexual health clinics (SHCs) that may be eligible for HIV-PrEP in England. Methods Sexually transmitted infection (STI) surveillance data from 2010 to 2015 from the GUMCAD surveillance system were used to estimate the annual number of HIV-negative MSM who may be eligible for HIV-PrEP in England. Based on national eligibility criteria, we identified HIV-negative MSM attending SHCs with a HIV-negative test in the past year and used diagnosed bacterial STI (past year) in this group as a proxy for condomless sex and eligibility for HIV-PrEP. We estimated HIV incidence per 100 person-years (py) in these groups in 2014. Results During 2010-2015, the number of HIV-negative MSM attending SHCs with a HIV-negative test in the past year doubled from 14 643 to 29 023, and HIV incidence in this group was 1.9 (95%CI 1.6 to 2.2) per 100 py in 2014. In the same period, the subgroup with a bacterial STI diagnosis (past year), and therefore considered potentially eligible for HIV-PrEP in this analysis, increased from 4365 (30%) to 10 276 (35%). HIV incidence in this subgroup was 3.3 (95%CI 2.7 to 4.0) per 100 py in 2014. Conclusions In 2015, approximately 10 000 HIV-negative MSM were considered potentially eligible for HIV-PrEP based on clinic history in GUMCAD. These data were used to inform the initial recruitment target for the PrEP Impact Trial and will inform future evaluations at a population level.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)484-487
Number of pages4
JournalSexually Transmitted Infections
Volume95
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2019

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

Keywords

  • HIV
  • gay men
  • policy
  • public health
  • surveillance

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