Potential impact of antiviral drug use during influenza pandemic

Raymond Gani*, Helen Hughes, Douglas Fleming, Thomas Griffin, Jolyon Medlock, Steve Leach

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

185 Citations (Scopus)


The recent spread of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza has highlighted the threat posed by pandemic influenza. In the early phases of a pandemic, the only treatment available would be neuraminidase inhibitors, which many countries are considering stockpiling for pandemic use. We estimate the effect on hospitalization rates of using different antiviral stockpile sizes to treat infection. We estimate that stockpiles that cover 20%-25% of the population would be sufficient to treat most of the clinical cases and could lead to 50% to 77% reductions in hospitalizations. Substantial reductions in hospitalization could be achieved with smaller antiviral stockpiles if drugs are reserved for persons at high risk.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1355-1362
Number of pages8
JournalEmerging Infectious Diseases
Issue number9
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2005


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