Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates

Marcus S.C. Blagrove; Cyril Caminade; Peter J. Diggle; Edward I. Patterson; Ken Sherlock; Gail E. Chapman; Jenny Hesson; Soeren Metelmann; Philip J. McCall; Gareth Lycett; Jolyon Medlock; Grant L. Hughes; Alessandra Della Torre; Matthew Baylis

doi:10.1098/rspb.2020.0119

Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates

Marcus S.C. Blagrove^*, Cyril Caminade, Peter J. Diggle, Edward I. Patterson, Ken Sherlock, Gail E. Chapman, Jenny Hesson, Soeren Metelmann, Philip J. McCall, Gareth Lycett, Jolyon Medlock, Grant L. Hughes, Alessandra Della Torre, Matthew Baylis

^*Corresponding author for this work

Medical Entomology and Zoonoses Ecology (MEZE)

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has almost exclusively been detected in the tropics despite the distributions of its primary vectors extending farther into temperate regions. Therefore, it is unknown whether ZIKV's range has reached a temperature-dependent limit, or if it can spread into temperate climates. Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Ochlerotatus detritus, were competent for ZIKV. We orally exposed mosquitoes to ZIKV and held them at between 17 and 31°C, estimated the time required for mosquitoes to become infectious, and applied these data to a ZIKV spatial risk model. We identified a minimum temperature threshold for the transmission of ZIKV by mosquitoes between 17 and 19°C. Using these data, we generated standardized basic reproduction number R 0 -based risk maps and we derived estimates for the length of the transmission season for recent and future climate conditions. Our standardized R 0 -based risk maps show potential risk of ZIKV transmission beyond the current observed range in southern USA, southern China and southern European countries. Transmission risk is simulated to increase over southern and Eastern Europe, northern USA and temperate regions of Asia (northern China, southern Japan) in future climate scenarios.

Original language	English
Article number	20200119
Journal	Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume	287
Issue number	1930
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.0119
Publication status	Published - 8 Jul 2020

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Provided materials: G.L.H. and A.d.T. Conceived work: M.S.C.B., C.C. and M.B. Competing interests. The authors declare that there are no competing interests. Funding. Experimental work was funded by an MRC Zika Rapid Response award to M.B. (MC_PC_15090). M.S.C.B., C.C., S.M. and M.B. acknowledge funding from the NIHR. The research was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at

Keywords

Aedes
EIP
R 0
Zika
climate change

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1098/rspb.2020.0119

Cite this

Blagrove, M. S. C., Caminade, C., Diggle, P. J., Patterson, E. I., Sherlock, K., Chapman, G. E., Hesson, J., Metelmann, S., McCall, P. J., Lycett, G., Medlock, J., Hughes, G. L., Della Torre, A., & Baylis, M. (2020). Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 287(1930), Article 20200119. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.0119

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title = "Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates",

abstract = "Mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has almost exclusively been detected in the tropics despite the distributions of its primary vectors extending farther into temperate regions. Therefore, it is unknown whether ZIKV's range has reached a temperature-dependent limit, or if it can spread into temperate climates. Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Ochlerotatus detritus, were competent for ZIKV. We orally exposed mosquitoes to ZIKV and held them at between 17 and 31°C, estimated the time required for mosquitoes to become infectious, and applied these data to a ZIKV spatial risk model. We identified a minimum temperature threshold for the transmission of ZIKV by mosquitoes between 17 and 19°C. Using these data, we generated standardized basic reproduction number R 0 -based risk maps and we derived estimates for the length of the transmission season for recent and future climate conditions. Our standardized R 0 -based risk maps show potential risk of ZIKV transmission beyond the current observed range in southern USA, southern China and southern European countries. Transmission risk is simulated to increase over southern and Eastern Europe, northern USA and temperate regions of Asia (northern China, southern Japan) in future climate scenarios.",

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author = "Blagrove, {Marcus S.C.} and Cyril Caminade and Diggle, {Peter J.} and Patterson, {Edward I.} and Ken Sherlock and Chapman, {Gail E.} and Jenny Hesson and Soeren Metelmann and McCall, {Philip J.} and Gareth Lycett and Jolyon Medlock and Hughes, {Grant L.} and {Della Torre}, Alessandra and Matthew Baylis",

note = "Funding Information: Provided materials: G.L.H. and A.d.T. Conceived work: M.S.C.B., C.C. and M.B. Competing interests. The authors declare that there are no competing interests. Funding. Experimental work was funded by an MRC Zika Rapid Response award to M.B. (MC_PC_15090). M.S.C.B., C.C., S.M. and M.B. acknowledge funding from the NIHR. The research was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at",

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Blagrove, MSC, Caminade, C, Diggle, PJ, Patterson, EI, Sherlock, K, Chapman, GE, Hesson, J, Metelmann, S, McCall, PJ, Lycett, G, Medlock, J, Hughes, GL, Della Torre, A & Baylis, M 2020, 'Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates', Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol. 287, no. 1930, 20200119. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.0119

TY - JOUR

T1 - Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates

AU - Blagrove, Marcus S.C.

AU - Caminade, Cyril

AU - Diggle, Peter J.

AU - Patterson, Edward I.

AU - Sherlock, Ken

AU - Chapman, Gail E.

AU - Hesson, Jenny

AU - Metelmann, Soeren

AU - McCall, Philip J.

AU - Lycett, Gareth

AU - Medlock, Jolyon

AU - Hughes, Grant L.

AU - Della Torre, Alessandra

AU - Baylis, Matthew

N1 - Funding Information: Provided materials: G.L.H. and A.d.T. Conceived work: M.S.C.B., C.C. and M.B. Competing interests. The authors declare that there are no competing interests. Funding. Experimental work was funded by an MRC Zika Rapid Response award to M.B. (MC_PC_15090). M.S.C.B., C.C., S.M. and M.B. acknowledge funding from the NIHR. The research was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at

PY - 2020/7/8

Y1 - 2020/7/8

N2 - Mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has almost exclusively been detected in the tropics despite the distributions of its primary vectors extending farther into temperate regions. Therefore, it is unknown whether ZIKV's range has reached a temperature-dependent limit, or if it can spread into temperate climates. Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Ochlerotatus detritus, were competent for ZIKV. We orally exposed mosquitoes to ZIKV and held them at between 17 and 31°C, estimated the time required for mosquitoes to become infectious, and applied these data to a ZIKV spatial risk model. We identified a minimum temperature threshold for the transmission of ZIKV by mosquitoes between 17 and 19°C. Using these data, we generated standardized basic reproduction number R 0 -based risk maps and we derived estimates for the length of the transmission season for recent and future climate conditions. Our standardized R 0 -based risk maps show potential risk of ZIKV transmission beyond the current observed range in southern USA, southern China and southern European countries. Transmission risk is simulated to increase over southern and Eastern Europe, northern USA and temperate regions of Asia (northern China, southern Japan) in future climate scenarios.

AB - Mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has almost exclusively been detected in the tropics despite the distributions of its primary vectors extending farther into temperate regions. Therefore, it is unknown whether ZIKV's range has reached a temperature-dependent limit, or if it can spread into temperate climates. Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Ochlerotatus detritus, were competent for ZIKV. We orally exposed mosquitoes to ZIKV and held them at between 17 and 31°C, estimated the time required for mosquitoes to become infectious, and applied these data to a ZIKV spatial risk model. We identified a minimum temperature threshold for the transmission of ZIKV by mosquitoes between 17 and 19°C. Using these data, we generated standardized basic reproduction number R 0 -based risk maps and we derived estimates for the length of the transmission season for recent and future climate conditions. Our standardized R 0 -based risk maps show potential risk of ZIKV transmission beyond the current observed range in southern USA, southern China and southern European countries. Transmission risk is simulated to increase over southern and Eastern Europe, northern USA and temperate regions of Asia (northern China, southern Japan) in future climate scenarios.

KW - Aedes

KW - EIP

KW - R 0

KW - Zika

KW - climate change

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DO - 10.1098/rspb.2020.0119

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SN - 0962-8452

VL - 287

JO - Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

JF - Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

IS - 1930

M1 - 20200119

ER -

Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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