Planning for smallpox outbreaks

Neil M. Ferguson; Matt J. Keeling; W. John Edmunds; Raymond Gani; Bryan T. Grenfell; Roy M. Anderson; Stephen Leach

doi:10.1038/nature02007

Planning for smallpox outbreaks

Neil M. Ferguson^*, Matt J. Keeling, W. John Edmunds, Raymond Gani, Bryan T. Grenfell, Roy M. Anderson, Stephen Leach

^*Corresponding author for this work

Public Health England

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

281 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	681-685
Number of pages	5
Journal	Nature
Volume	425
Issue number	6959
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02007
Publication status	Published - 16 Oct 2003

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Acknowledgements We thank the Royal Society (N.M.F. and M.J.K.), MRC (N.M.F.), Howard Hughes Medical Institute (N.M.F.), BBSRC (M.J.K. and B.T.G.), the Wellcome Trust (B.T.G. and R.M.A.) and the Department of Health (W.J.E., R.G. and S.L.) for funding. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the Department of Health, but we thank staff of the Department for discussions.

Copyright:
Copyright 2008 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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title = "Planning for smallpox outbreaks",

abstract = "Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.",

author = "Ferguson, {Neil M.} and Keeling, {Matt J.} and Edmunds, {W. John} and Raymond Gani and Grenfell, {Bryan T.} and Anderson, {Roy M.} and Stephen Leach",

note = "Funding Information: Acknowledgements We thank the Royal Society (N.M.F. and M.J.K.), MRC (N.M.F.), Howard Hughes Medical Institute (N.M.F.), BBSRC (M.J.K. and B.T.G.), the Wellcome Trust (B.T.G. and R.M.A.) and the Department of Health (W.J.E., R.G. and S.L.) for funding. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the Department of Health, but we thank staff of the Department for discussions. Copyright: Copyright 2008 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

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AU - Ferguson, Neil M.

AU - Keeling, Matt J.

AU - Edmunds, W. John

AU - Gani, Raymond

AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.

AU - Anderson, Roy M.

AU - Leach, Stephen

N1 - Funding Information: Acknowledgements We thank the Royal Society (N.M.F. and M.J.K.), MRC (N.M.F.), Howard Hughes Medical Institute (N.M.F.), BBSRC (M.J.K. and B.T.G.), the Wellcome Trust (B.T.G. and R.M.A.) and the Department of Health (W.J.E., R.G. and S.L.) for funding. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the Department of Health, but we thank staff of the Department for discussions. Copyright: Copyright 2008 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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N2 - Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.

AB - Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.

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EP - 685

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

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Planning for smallpox outbreaks

Abstract

Bibliographical note

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