Abstract
To study the trade-off between economic, social and health outcomes in the management of a pandemic, DAEDALUS integrates a dynamic epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a multi-sector economic model, reflecting sectoral heterogeneity in transmission and complex supply chains. The model identifies mitigation strategies that optimize economic production while constraining infections so that hospital capacity is not exceeded but allowing essential services, including much of the education sector, to remain active. The model differentiates closures by economic sector, keeping those sectors open that contribute little to transmission but much to economic output and those that produce essential services as intermediate or final consumption products. In an illustrative application to 63 sectors in the United Kingdom, the model achieves an economic gain of between £161 billion (24%) and £193 billion (29%) compared to a blanket lockdown of non-essential activities over six months. Although it has been designed for SARS-CoV-2, DAEDALUS is sufficiently flexible to be applicable to pandemics with different epidemiological characteristics.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 223-233 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Nature Computational Science |
| Volume | 2 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Apr 2022 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:D.J.H., G.F., P.D., P.C., M.P., R.J., S.B., A.H., P.W., P.J.W., A.C.G., N.M.F. and K.D.H. acknowledge funding from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/R015600/1), jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement, also part of the EDCTP2 program supported by the European Union. G.F., P.D., N.M.F. and K.D.H. also acknowledge funding by Community Jameel. P.J.W., N.M.F. and K.D.H. were also supported by the NIHR HPRU in Modelling and Health Economics, a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency, Imperial College London and LSHTM (grant no. NIHR200908). G.F. was also supported by the Jan Wallanders and Tom Hedelius Foundation and the Tore Browaldh Foundation grant no. P19-0110. A.C.G. and N.M.F. acknowledge additional support from The Wellcome Trust through a concordat arrangement with FCDO. D.J.H. also acknowledges funding by the Wellcome Trust, and R.J. funding by the World Health Organization. We acknowledge comments on earlier stages of the work and inspirational discussions with our colleagues from the Imperial College COVID-19 response team at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, A. Bucher, S. Deo, A. Glassman and participants of a webinar of the Center for Global Development, participants of a webinar at the iHEA congress 2021, L. Dwyer, S. Riley, N. Arinaminpathy, J. Haskel, A. Tyrie and D. Miles. We thank S. van Elsland and R. Mehta for managing communications and public relations for this study. For the purpose of open access, the authors have applied a ?Creative Commons Attribution? (CC BY) licence to any author accepted manuscript version arising from this submission Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the United Kingdom (UK) Department of Health and Social Care, the National Health Service, the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), the UK Health Security Agency, the World Health Organization or of the commentators.
Funding Information:
D.J.H., G.F., P.D., P.C., M.P., R.J., S.B., A.H., P.W., P.J.W., A.C.G., N.M.F. and K.D.H. acknowledge funding from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/R015600/1), jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement, also part of the EDCTP2 program supported by the European Union. G.F., P.D., N.M.F. and K.D.H. also acknowledge funding by Community Jameel. P.J.W., N.M.F. and K.D.H. were also supported by the NIHR HPRU in Modelling and Health Economics, a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency, Imperial College London and LSHTM (grant no. NIHR200908). G.F. was also supported by the Jan Wallanders and Tom Hedelius Foundation and the Tore Browaldh Foundation grant no. P19-0110. A.C.G. and N.M.F. acknowledge additional support from The Wellcome Trust through a concordat arrangement with FCDO. D.J.H. also acknowledges funding by the Wellcome Trust, and R.J. funding by the World Health Organization. We acknowledge comments on earlier stages of the work and inspirational discussions with our colleagues from the Imperial College COVID-19 response team at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, A. Bucher, S. Deo, A. Glassman and participants of a webinar of the Center for Global Development, participants of a webinar at the iHEA congress 2021, L. Dwyer, S. Riley, N. Arinaminpathy, J. Haskel, A. Tyrie and D. Miles. We thank S. van Elsland and R. Mehta for managing communications and public relations for this study. For the purpose of open access, the authors have applied a ‘Creative Commons Attribution’ (CC BY) licence to any author accepted manuscript version arising from this submission Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the United Kingdom (UK) Department of Health and Social Care, the National Health Service, the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), the UK Health Security Agency, the World Health Organization or of the commentators.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc.