Near elimination of genital warts in Australia predicted with extension of human papillomavirus vaccination to males

Background: The National Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccination Program for females delivering the quadrivalent vaccine Gardasil has been included in the National Immunisation Program in Australia since 2007. Sentinel surveillance data show that genital wart incidence has been steadily declining since then. The objective of this study was to estimate the additional impact on genital warts as a result of male vaccination, which was approved by the Australian government in 2012 and commenced in 2013. Methods: We use a mathematical model of HPV transmission in the Australian heterosexual population to predict the impact of male vaccination on the incidence of genital warts. Results: Our model produced results that are consistent with the actual observed decline in genital warts and predicted a much lower incidence, approaching elimination, in coming decades with the introduction of male vaccination. Conclusions: Results from our model indicate that the planned extension of the National HPV Vaccination Program to males will lead to the near elimination of genital warts in both the female and male heterosexual populations in Australia.