Modeling the role of carrier and mobile herds on foot-and-mouth disease virus endemicity in the Far North Region of Cameroon

Patrick M. Schnell*, Yibo Shao, Laura W. Pomeroy, Joseph H. Tien, Mark Moritz, Rebecca Garabed

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) is an RNA virus that infects cloven-hoofed animals, often produces either epidemic or endemic conditions, and negatively affects agricultural economies worldwide. FMDV epidemic dynamics have been extensively studied, but understanding of drivers of disease persistence in areas in which FMDV is endemic, such as most of sub-Saharan Africa, is lacking. We present a spatial stochastic model of disease dynamics that incorporates a spatial transmission kernel in a modified Gillespie algorithm, and use it to evaluate two hypothesized drivers of endemicity: asymptomatic carriers and the movement of mobile herds. The model is parameterized using data from the pastoral systems in the Far North Region of Cameroon. Our computational study provides evidence in support of the hypothesis that asymptomatic carriers, but not mobile herds, are a driver of endemicity.

Original languageEnglish
Article number100355
JournalEpidemics
Volume29
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2019
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 The Authors

Keywords

  • Asymptomatic carrier
  • Endemic
  • Foot-and-mouth disease virus
  • Gillespie algorithm
  • Transmission kernel
  • mobile herd

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