Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Roy Burstein, Nathaniel J. Henry, Michael L. Collison, Laurie B. Marczak, Amber Sligar, Stefanie Watson, Neal Marquez, Mahdieh Abbasalizad-Farhangi, Masoumeh Abbasi, Foad Abd-Allah, Amir Abdoli, Mohammad Abdollahi, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Dilaram Acharya, Oladimeji M. Adebayo, Victor Adekanmbi, Davoud Adham, Mahdi AfshariMohammad Aghaali, Keivan Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadi, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Rushdia Ahmed, Chalachew Genet Akal, Joshua O. Akinyemi, Fares Alahdab, Noore Alam, Genet Melak Alamene, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Cyrus Alinia, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Mohammed J. Almalki, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, Khalid Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Adeladza Kofi Amegah, Saeed Amini, Arianna Maever Loreche Amit, Zohreh Anbari, Sofia Androudi, Mina Anjomshoa, Fereshteh Ansari, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Jalal Arabloo, Zohreh Arefi, Olatunde Aremu, Bahram Armoon, Amit Arora, Al Artaman, Anvar Asadi, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Amir Ashraf-Ganjouei, Reza Assadi, Bahar Ataeinia, Sachin R. Atre, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Samad Azari, Ebrahim Babaee, Arefeh Babazadeh, Alaa Badawi, Soghra Bagheri, Mojtaba Bagherzadeh, Nafiseh Baheiraei, Abbas Balouchi, Aleksandra Barac, Quique Bassat, Bernhard T. Baune, Mohsen Bayati, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Masoud Behzadifar, Meysam Behzadifar, Yared Belete Belay, Brent Bell, Michelle L. Bell, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Robert S. Bernstein, Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, Suraj Bhattarai, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Ali Bijani, Somayeh Bohlouli, Nicholas J.K. Breitborde, Gabrielle Britton, Annie J. Browne, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Reinhard Busse, Zahid A. Butt, Josip Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela, Ester Cerin, Wagaye Fentahun Chanie, Pranab Chatterjee, Dinh Toi Chu, Cyrus Cooper, Vera M. Costa, Koustuv Dalal, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Farah Daoud, Ahmad Daryani, Rajat Das Gupta, Ian Davis, Nicole Davis Weaver, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Jan Walter De Neve, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Kebede Deribe, Rupak Desai, Aniruddha Deshpande, Hanna Demelash Desyibelew, Sagnik Dey, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Daniel Diaz, Leila Doshmangir, Andre R. Duraes, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Lucas Earl, Roya Ebrahimi, Soheil Ebrahimpour, Andem Effiong, Aziz Eftekhari, Elham Ehsani-Chimeh, Iman El Sayed, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maha El Tantawi, Ziad El-Khatib, Mohammad Hassan Emamian, Shymaa Enany, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Oghenowede Eyawo, Maha Ezalarab, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Mohammad Fareed, Roghiyeh Faridnia, Andre Faro, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, João C. Fernandes, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Nataliya A. Foigt, Masoud Foroutan, Joel Msafiri Francis, Takeshi Fukumoto, Nancy Fullman, Silvano Gallus, Destallem Gebremedhin Gebre, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Bradford D. Gessner, Birhanu Geta, Peter W. Gething, Reza Ghadimi, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Mahsa Ghajarzadeh, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Paramjit Singh Gill, Tiffany K. Gill, Nick Golding, Nelson G.M. Gomes, Philimon N. Gona, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Giuseppe Gorini, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Nicholas Graetz, Felix Greaves, Manfred S. Green, Yuming Guo, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Brian James Hall, Samer Hamidi, Hamidreza Haririan, Josep Maria Haro, Milad Hasankhani, Edris Hasanpoor, Amir Hasanzadeh, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Mohamed I. Hegazy, Delia Hendrie, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Thomas R. Hird, Chi Linh Hoang, Gillian Hollerich, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Mojtaba Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, Naznin Hossain, Mostafa Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mowafa Househ, Mohamed Hsairi, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Nazrul Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Mikk Jürisson, Nader Jafari Balalami, Amir Jalali, Javad Javidnia, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Ensiyeh Jenabi, John S. Ji, Yash B. Jobanputra, Kimberly Johnson, Jost B. Jonas, Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Ali Kabir, Amaha Kahsay, Hamed Kalani, Rohollah Kalhor, Manoochehr Karami, Surendra Karki, Amir Kasaeian, Nicholas J. Kassebaum, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Roghayeh Khabiri, Yousef Saleh Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Junaid Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Young Ho Khang, Khaled Khatab, Amir Khater, Mona M. Khater, Alireza Khatony, Mohammad Khazaei, Salman Khazaei, Maryam Khazaei-Pool, Jagdish Khubchandani, Neda Kianipour, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W. Kimokoti, Damaris K. Kinyoki, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Tufa Kolola, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A. Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Moritz U.G. Kraemer, Kewal Krishan, Kris J. Krohn, Nuworza Kugbey, G. Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Pushpendra Kumar, Desmond Kuupiel, Ben Lacey, Sheetal D. Lad, Faris Hasan Lami, Anders O. Larsson, Paul H. Lee, Mostafa Leili, Aubrey J. Levine, Shanshan Li, Lee Ling Lim, Stefan Listl, Joshua Longbottom, Jaifred Christian F. Lopez, Stefan Lorkowski, Sameh Magdeldin, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Azeem Majeed, Afshin Maleki, Reza Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah A. Mamun, Navid Manafi, Ana Laura Manda, Morteza Mansourian, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Anthony Masaka, Benjamin Ballard Massenburg, Pallab K. Maulik, Benjamin K. Mayala, Mohsen Mazidi, Martin McKee, Ravi Mehrotra, Kala M. Mehta, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G. Menezes, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Tomislav Mestrovic, Ted R. Miller, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Edward J. Mills, George J. Milne, G. K. Mini, Seyed Mostafa Mir, Hamed Mirjalali, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Efat Mohamadi, Dara K. Mohammad, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Ammas Siraj Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Yoshan Moodley, Mahmood Moosazadeh, Ghobad Moradi, Masoud Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Mehdi Moradinazar, Paula Moraga, Lidia Morawska, Abbas Mosapour, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Ulrich Otto Mueller, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Ghulam Mustafa, Behnam Nabavizadeh, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Azin Nahvijou, Farid Najafi, Vinay Nangia, Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe, Nahid Neamati, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Long Hoang Nguyen, Son Hoang Nguyen, Katie R. Nielsen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Molly R. Nixon, Chukwudi A. Nnaji, Marzieh Nojomi, Mehdi Noroozi, Shirin Nosratnejad, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Soraya Nouraei Motlagh, Richard Ofori-Asenso, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Kelechi E. Oladimeji, Andrew T. Olagunju, Meysam Olfatifar, Solomon Olum, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Mojisola Morenike Oluwasanu, Obinna E. Onwujekwe, Eyal Oren, Doris D.V. Ortega-Altamirano, Alberto Ortiz, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Frank B. Osei, Aaron E. Osgood-Zimmerman, Stanislav S. Otstavnov, Mayowa Ojo Owolabi, P. A. Mahesh, Abdol Sattar Pagheh, Smita Pakhale, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Animika Pandey, Eun Kee Park, Hadi Parsian, Tahereh Pashaei, Sangram Kishor Patel, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Alexandre Pereira, Samantha Perkins, Brandon V. Pickering, Thomas Pilgrim, Majid Pirestani, Bakhtiar Piroozi, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Oleguer Plana-Ripoll, Hadi Pourjafar, Parul Puri, Mostafa Qorbani, Hedley Quintana, Mohammad Rabiee, Navid Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Zohreh Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Shadi Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh Rajati, Sree Bhushan Raju, Azra Ramezankhani, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Davide Rasella, Vahid Rashedi, Lal Rawal, Robert C. Reiner, Andre M.N. Renzaho, Satar Rezaei, Aziz Rezapour, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Leonardo Roever, Elias Merdassa Roro, Max Roser, Gholamreza Roshandel, Daem Roshani, Ali Rostami, Enrico Rubagotti, Salvatore Rubino, Siamak Sabour, Nafis Sadat, Ehsan Sadeghi, Reza Saeedi, Yahya Safari, Roya Safari-Faramani, Mahdi Safdarian, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Nasir Salam, Payman Salamati, Farkhonde Salehi, Saleh Salehi Zahabi, Yahya Salimi, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Joshua A. Salomon, Evanson Zondani Sambala, Abdallah M. Samy, Milena M. Santric Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Benn Sartorius, Brijesh Sathian, Sonia Saxena, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Lauren E. Schaeffer, David C. Schwebel, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Faramarz Shaahmadi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Amir Shamshirian, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kiomars Sharafi, Mehdi Sharif, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Hamid Sharifi, Jayendra Sharma, Rajesh Sharma, Aziz Sheikh, Chloe Shields, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Ivy Shiue, Kerem Shuval, Tariq J. Siddiqi, João Pedro Silva, Jasvinder A. Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Solomon Sisay, Karen Sliwa, David L. Smith, Ranjani Somayaji, Moslem Soofi, Joan B. Soriano, Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy, Agus Sudaryanto, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Bryan L. Sykes, P. N. Sylaja, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Karen M. Tabb, Takahiro Tabuchi, Nuno Taveira, Mohamad Hani Temsah, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Sathish Thirunavukkarasu, Quyen G. To, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Irfan Ullah, Muhammad Shariq Usman, Olalekan A. Uthman, Amir Vahedian-Azimi, Pascual R. Valdez, Job F.M. van Boven, Tommi Juhani Vasankari, Yasser Vasseghian, Yousef Veisani, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco S. Violante, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Vasily Vlassov, Theo Vos, Giang Thu Vu, Isidora S. Vujcic, Yasir Waheed, Jon Wakefield, Haidong Wang, Yafeng Wang, Yuan Pang Wang, Joseph L. Ward, Robert G. Weintraub, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Ronny Westerman, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Lauren Woyczynski, Ai Min Wu, Gelin Xu, Abbas Yadegar, Tomohide Yamada, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Christopher Sabo Yilgwan, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Javad Yoosefi Lebni, Mustafa Z. Younis, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Chuanhua Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Erfan Zabeh, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Hamed Zandian, Alireza Zangeneh, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Yunquan Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Sanjay Zodpey, Christopher J.L. Murray, Simon I. Hay*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

76 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)353-358
Number of pages6
JournalNature
Volume574
Issue number7778
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 17 Oct 2019

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
593Medical Parasitology Department, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt. 594Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China. 595Department of Health Management and Economics, A.C.S. Medical College and Hospital, Tehran, Iran. 596Department of Electrical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. 597Electrical Engineering, Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences, Tehran, Iran. 598Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Ardabil University of Medical Science, Ardabil, Iran. 599Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh. 600Department of Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. 601Student Research Committee, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran. 602Department of Community Medicine, Ardabil University of Medical Science, Ardabil, Iran. 603Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran. 604Maternal and Child Wellbeing Unit, African Population Health Research Centre, Nairobi, Kenya. 605Public Health Department, Dilla University, Dilla, Ethiopia. 606Department of Preventative Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China. 607School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China. 608Indian Institute of Public Health, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India. 609School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia. 610State University of Semarang, Public Health Science Department, Kota Semarang, Indonesia. 611Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, Taipei Medical University, Taipei City, Taiwan. 612These authors contributed equally: Roy Burstein, Nathaniel J. Henry. 613These authors jointly supervised this work: Christopher J. L. Murray, Simon I. Hay. *e-mail: sihay@uw.edu

Funding Information:
399Public Health Science Department, School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa. 400Department of Community and Family Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. 401University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran. 402Department of Health Economics, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran. 403Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa. 404Centre of Cardiovascular Research and Education in Therapeutics, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. 405Independent Consultant, Accra, Ghana. 406Translational Health Research Institute, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia. 407Center for the Aid Program of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA) TB and HIV Pathogenesis Unit, United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), Durban, South Africa. 408Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. 409Department of Psychiatry, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria. 410Gastroenterology and Liver Disease Research Center, A.C.S. Medical College and Hospital, Tehran, Iran. 411Department of Food Science and Postharvest Technology, Gulu University, Gulu, Uganda. 412Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium. 413Centre for Healthy Start Initiative, Lagos, Nigeria. 414Department of Health Promotion and Education, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria. 415Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, University of Nigeria Nsukka, Enugu, Nigeria. 416University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. 417Graduate School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA. 418Center for Health Systems Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico. 419School of Medicine, Autonomous University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain. 420Department of Nephrology and Hypertension, The Institute for Health Research Foundation Jiménez Díaz University Hospital, Madrid, Spain. 421Environmental Management and Toxicology, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria. 422Faculty of Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands. 423Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Energy and Natural Resources, Sunyani, Ghana. 424Analytical Center, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Russia. 425Committee for the Comprehensive Assessment of Medical Devices and Information Technology, Health Technology Assessment Association, Moscow, Russia. 426Institute for Advanced Medical Research and Training, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria. 427Department of Tb & Respiratory Medicine, Jagadguru Sri Shivarathreeswara University, Mysore, India. 428Department of Medicine, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. 429Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany. 430Department of Medical Humanities and Social Medicine, Kosin University, Busan, South Korea. 431Research and Evaluation, Population Council, New Delhi, India. 432Indian Institute of Health Management Research University, Jaipur, India. 433Center for Research and Innovation, Ateneo De Manila University, Pasig City, The Philippines. 434Department of Genetics, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA. 435Laboratory of Genetics and Molecular Cardiology, University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil. 436Department of Cardiology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. 437Parasitology and Entomology Department, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. 438National Centre for Register-Based Research, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark. 439Department of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran. 440Department of Public Health, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran. 441Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran. 442Biomedical Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. 443College of Graduate Health Sciences, A.T. Still University, Mesa, AZ, USA. 444Medichem, Barcelona, Spain. 445Molecular and Cell Biology Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran. 446Department of Immunology, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran. 447Endocrinology and Metabolism Molecular-Cellular Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. 448Thalassemia and Hemoglobinopathy Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran. 449Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran. 450Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Funding Information:
380Department of Pediatrics & Pediatric Pulmonology, Institute of Mother & Child Care, Multan, Pakistan. 381Department of Urology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. 382Operating Room Department, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran. 383Research and Analytics, Initiative for Financing Health and Human Development, Chennai, India. 384Research and Analytics, Bioinsilico Technologies, Chennai, India. 385Cancer Research Center of Cancer Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. 386Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran. 387Suraj Eye Institute, Nagpur, India. 388Cochrane South Africa, South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa. 389Emergency Hospital of Bucharest, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania. 390General Surgery Department, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania.

Funding Information:
Acknowledgements This work was primarily supported by grant OPP1132415 from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019, The Author(s).

Copyright:
Copyright 2019 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

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