Malaria infection and severe disease risks in Africa

Robert S. Paton; Alice Kamau; Samuel Akech; Ambrose Agweyu; Morris Ogero; Charles Mwandawiro; Neema Mturi; Shebe Mohammed; Arthur Mpimbaza; Simon Kariuki; Nancy A. Otieno; Bryan O. Nyawanda; Amina F. Mohamed; George Mtove; Hugh Reyburn; Sunetra Gupta; Philip Bejon; José Lourenço; Robert W. Snow

doi:10.1126/science.abj0089

Malaria infection and severe disease risks in Africa

Robert S. Paton^*, Alice Kamau^*, Samuel Akech, Ambrose Agweyu, Morris Ogero, Charles Mwandawiro, Neema Mturi, Shebe Mohammed, Arthur Mpimbaza, Simon Kariuki, Nancy A. Otieno, Bryan O. Nyawanda, Amina F. Mohamed, George Mtove, Hugh Reyburn, Sunetra Gupta, Philip Bejon, José Lourenço, Robert W. Snow

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

32 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The relationship between community prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum and the burden of severe, lifethreatening disease remains poorly defined. To examine the three most common severe malaria phenotypes from catchment populations across East Africa, we assembled a dataset of 6506 hospital admissions for malaria in children aged 3 months to 9 years from 2006 to 2020. Admissions were paired with data from community parasite infection surveys. A Bayesian procedure was used to calibrate uncertainties in exposure (parasite prevalence) and outcomes (severe malaria phenotypes). Each 25% increase in prevalence conferred a doubling of severe malaria admission rates. Severe malaria remains a burden predominantly among young children (3 to 59 months) across a wide range of community prevalence typical of East Africa. This study offers a quantitative framework for linking malaria parasite prevalence and severe disease outcomes in children.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	926-931
Number of pages	6
Journal	Science
Volume	373
Issue number	6557
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0089
Publication status	Published - 20 Aug 2021
Externally published	Yes

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© 2021 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.

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Paton, R. S., Kamau, A., Akech, S., Agweyu, A., Ogero, M., Mwandawiro, C., Mturi, N., Mohammed, S., Mpimbaza, A., Kariuki, S., Otieno, N. A., Nyawanda, B. O., Mohamed, A. F., Mtove, G., Reyburn, H., Gupta, S., Bejon, P., Lourenço, J., & Snow, R. W. (2021). Malaria infection and severe disease risks in Africa. Science, 373(6557), 926-931. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0089

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AU - Kamau, Alice

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AU - Mwandawiro, Charles

AU - Mturi, Neema

AU - Mohammed, Shebe

AU - Mpimbaza, Arthur

AU - Kariuki, Simon

AU - Otieno, Nancy A.

AU - Nyawanda, Bryan O.

AU - Mohamed, Amina F.

AU - Mtove, George

AU - Reyburn, Hugh

AU - Gupta, Sunetra

AU - Bejon, Philip

AU - Lourenço, José

AU - Snow, Robert W.

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JO - Science

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Malaria infection and severe disease risks in Africa

Abstract

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