Incidence trends of airflow obstruction among European adults without asthma: a 20-year cohort study

Simone Accordini; Lucia Calciano; Alessandro Marcon; Giancarlo Pesce; Josep M. Antó; Anna B. Beckmeyer-Borowko; Anne Elie Carsin; Angelo G. Corsico; Medea Imboden; Christer Janson; Dirk Keidel; Francesca Locatelli; Cecilie Svanes; Peter G.J. Burney; Deborah Jarvis; Nicole M. Probst-Hensch; Cosetta Minelli

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-60478-5

Incidence trends of airflow obstruction among European adults without asthma: a 20-year cohort study

Simone Accordini^*
, Lucia Calciano
, Alessandro Marcon
, Giancarlo Pesce
, Josep M. Antó
, Anna B. Beckmeyer-Borowko
, Anne Elie Carsin
, Angelo G. Corsico
, Medea Imboden
, Christer Janson
, Dirk Keidel
, Francesca Locatelli
, Cecilie Svanes
, Peter G.J. Burney
, Deborah Jarvis
, Nicole M. Probst-Hensch
, Cosetta Minelli

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Investigating COPD trends may help healthcare providers to forecast future disease burden. We estimated sex- and smoking-specific incidence trends of pre-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (AO) among adults without asthma from 11 European countries within a 20-year follow-up (ECRHS and SAPALDIA cohorts). We also quantified the extent of misclassification in the definition based on pre-bronchodilator spirometry (using post-bronchodilator measurements from a subsample of subjects) and we used this information to estimate the incidence of post-bronchodilator AO (AO_post-BD), which is the primary characteristic of COPD. AO incidence was 4.4 (95% CI: 3.5–5.3) male and 3.8 (3.1–4.6) female cases/1,000/year. Among ever smokers (median pack-years: 20, males; 12, females), AO incidence significantly increased with ageing in men only [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 1-year increase: 1.05 (1.03–1.07)]. A strong exposure-response relationship with smoking was found both in males [IRR, 1-pack-year increase: 1.03 (1.02–1.04)] and females [1.03 (1.02–1.05)]. The positive predictive value of AO for AO_post-BD was 59.1% (52.0–66.2%) in men and 42.6% (35.1–50.1%) in women. AO_post-BD incidence was 2.6 (1.7–3.4) male and 1.6 (1.0–2.2) female cases/1,000/year. AO incidence was considerable in Europe and the sex-specific ageing-related increase among ever smokers was strongly related to cumulative tobacco exposure. AO_post-BD incidence is expected to be half of AO incidence.

Original language	English
Article number	3452
Journal	Scientific Reports
Volume	10
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60478-5
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2020
Externally published	Yes

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Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).

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10.1038/s41598-020-60478-5

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Accordini, S., Calciano, L., Marcon, A., Pesce, G., Antó, J. M., Beckmeyer-Borowko, A. B., Carsin, A. E., Corsico, A. G., Imboden, M., Janson, C., Keidel, D., Locatelli, F., Svanes, C., Burney, P. G. J., Jarvis, D., Probst-Hensch, N. M., & Minelli, C. (2020). Incidence trends of airflow obstruction among European adults without asthma: a 20-year cohort study. Scientific Reports, 10(1), Article 3452. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60478-5

@article{becd3422535748dcbdbaaed4da56f103,

title = "Incidence trends of airflow obstruction among European adults without asthma: a 20-year cohort study",

abstract = "Investigating COPD trends may help healthcare providers to forecast future disease burden. We estimated sex- and smoking-specific incidence trends of pre-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (AO) among adults without asthma from 11 European countries within a 20-year follow-up (ECRHS and SAPALDIA cohorts). We also quantified the extent of misclassification in the definition based on pre-bronchodilator spirometry (using post-bronchodilator measurements from a subsample of subjects) and we used this information to estimate the incidence of post-bronchodilator AO (AOpost-BD), which is the primary characteristic of COPD. AO incidence was 4.4 (95\% CI: 3.5–5.3) male and 3.8 (3.1–4.6) female cases/1,000/year. Among ever smokers (median pack-years: 20, males; 12, females), AO incidence significantly increased with ageing in men only [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 1-year increase: 1.05 (1.03–1.07)]. A strong exposure-response relationship with smoking was found both in males [IRR, 1-pack-year increase: 1.03 (1.02–1.04)] and females [1.03 (1.02–1.05)]. The positive predictive value of AO for AOpost-BD was 59.1\% (52.0–66.2\%) in men and 42.6\% (35.1–50.1\%) in women. AOpost-BD incidence was 2.6 (1.7–3.4) male and 1.6 (1.0–2.2) female cases/1,000/year. AO incidence was considerable in Europe and the sex-specific ageing-related increase among ever smokers was strongly related to cumulative tobacco exposure. AOpost-BD incidence is expected to be half of AO incidence.",

author = "Simone Accordini and Lucia Calciano and Alessandro Marcon and Giancarlo Pesce and Ant{\'o}, \{Josep M.\} and Beckmeyer-Borowko, \{Anna B.\} and Carsin, \{Anne Elie\} and Corsico, \{Angelo G.\} and Medea Imboden and Christer Janson and Dirk Keidel and Francesca Locatelli and Cecilie Svanes and Burney, \{Peter G.J.\} and Deborah Jarvis and Probst-Hensch, \{Nicole M.\} and Cosetta Minelli",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020, The Author(s).",

year = "2020",

month = dec,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1038/s41598-020-60478-5",

language = "English",

volume = "10",

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Accordini, S, Calciano, L, Marcon, A, Pesce, G, Antó, JM, Beckmeyer-Borowko, AB, Carsin, AE, Corsico, AG, Imboden, M, Janson, C, Keidel, D, Locatelli, F, Svanes, C, Burney, PGJ, Jarvis, D, Probst-Hensch, NM & Minelli, C 2020, 'Incidence trends of airflow obstruction among European adults without asthma: a 20-year cohort study', Scientific Reports, vol. 10, no. 1, 3452. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60478-5

TY - JOUR

T1 - Incidence trends of airflow obstruction among European adults without asthma

T2 - a 20-year cohort study

AU - Accordini, Simone

AU - Calciano, Lucia

AU - Marcon, Alessandro

AU - Pesce, Giancarlo

AU - Antó, Josep M.

AU - Beckmeyer-Borowko, Anna B.

AU - Carsin, Anne Elie

AU - Corsico, Angelo G.

AU - Imboden, Medea

AU - Janson, Christer

AU - Keidel, Dirk

AU - Locatelli, Francesca

AU - Svanes, Cecilie

AU - Burney, Peter G.J.

AU - Jarvis, Deborah

AU - Probst-Hensch, Nicole M.

AU - Minelli, Cosetta

PY - 2020/12/1

Y1 - 2020/12/1

N2 - Investigating COPD trends may help healthcare providers to forecast future disease burden. We estimated sex- and smoking-specific incidence trends of pre-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (AO) among adults without asthma from 11 European countries within a 20-year follow-up (ECRHS and SAPALDIA cohorts). We also quantified the extent of misclassification in the definition based on pre-bronchodilator spirometry (using post-bronchodilator measurements from a subsample of subjects) and we used this information to estimate the incidence of post-bronchodilator AO (AOpost-BD), which is the primary characteristic of COPD. AO incidence was 4.4 (95% CI: 3.5–5.3) male and 3.8 (3.1–4.6) female cases/1,000/year. Among ever smokers (median pack-years: 20, males; 12, females), AO incidence significantly increased with ageing in men only [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 1-year increase: 1.05 (1.03–1.07)]. A strong exposure-response relationship with smoking was found both in males [IRR, 1-pack-year increase: 1.03 (1.02–1.04)] and females [1.03 (1.02–1.05)]. The positive predictive value of AO for AOpost-BD was 59.1% (52.0–66.2%) in men and 42.6% (35.1–50.1%) in women. AOpost-BD incidence was 2.6 (1.7–3.4) male and 1.6 (1.0–2.2) female cases/1,000/year. AO incidence was considerable in Europe and the sex-specific ageing-related increase among ever smokers was strongly related to cumulative tobacco exposure. AOpost-BD incidence is expected to be half of AO incidence.

AB - Investigating COPD trends may help healthcare providers to forecast future disease burden. We estimated sex- and smoking-specific incidence trends of pre-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (AO) among adults without asthma from 11 European countries within a 20-year follow-up (ECRHS and SAPALDIA cohorts). We also quantified the extent of misclassification in the definition based on pre-bronchodilator spirometry (using post-bronchodilator measurements from a subsample of subjects) and we used this information to estimate the incidence of post-bronchodilator AO (AOpost-BD), which is the primary characteristic of COPD. AO incidence was 4.4 (95% CI: 3.5–5.3) male and 3.8 (3.1–4.6) female cases/1,000/year. Among ever smokers (median pack-years: 20, males; 12, females), AO incidence significantly increased with ageing in men only [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 1-year increase: 1.05 (1.03–1.07)]. A strong exposure-response relationship with smoking was found both in males [IRR, 1-pack-year increase: 1.03 (1.02–1.04)] and females [1.03 (1.02–1.05)]. The positive predictive value of AO for AOpost-BD was 59.1% (52.0–66.2%) in men and 42.6% (35.1–50.1%) in women. AOpost-BD incidence was 2.6 (1.7–3.4) male and 1.6 (1.0–2.2) female cases/1,000/year. AO incidence was considerable in Europe and the sex-specific ageing-related increase among ever smokers was strongly related to cumulative tobacco exposure. AOpost-BD incidence is expected to be half of AO incidence.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85080051884

U2 - 10.1038/s41598-020-60478-5

DO - 10.1038/s41598-020-60478-5

M3 - Article

C2 - 32103063

AN - SCOPUS:85080051884

SN - 2045-2322

VL - 10

JO - Scientific Reports

JF - Scientific Reports

IS - 1

M1 - 3452

ER -

Incidence trends of airflow obstruction among European adults without asthma: a 20-year cohort study

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