TY - JOUR
T1 - Improving the representativeness of UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey through spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification
AU - the COVID−19 Infection Survey Tea
AU - Pouwels, Koen B.
AU - Eyre, David W.
AU - House, Thomas
AU - Aspey, Ben
AU - Matthews, Philippa C.
AU - Stoesser, Nicole
AU - Newton, John N.
AU - Diamond, Ian
AU - Studley, Ruth
AU - Taylor, Nick G.H.
AU - Bell, John I.
AU - Farrar, Jeremy
AU - Kolenchery, Jaison
AU - Marsden, Brian D.
AU - Hoosdally, Sarah
AU - Jones, E. Yvonne
AU - Stuart, David I.
AU - Crook, Derrick W.
AU - Peto, Tim E.A.
AU - Walker, A. Sarah
AU - Wei, Jia
AU - Pritchard, Emma
AU - Vihta, Karina Doris
AU - Doherty, George
AU - Kavanagh, James
AU - Chau, Kevin K.
AU - Hatch, Stephanie B.
AU - Ebner, Daniel
AU - Ferreira, Lucas Martins
AU - Christott, Thomas
AU - Dejnirattisai, Wanwisa
AU - Mongkolsapaya, Juthathip
AU - Cameron, Sarah
AU - Tamblin-Hopper, Phoebe
AU - Wolna, Magda
AU - Brown, Rachael
AU - Cornall, Richard
AU - Screaton, Gavin
AU - Lythgoe, Katrina
AU - Bonsall, David
AU - Golubchik, Tanya
AU - Fryer, Helen
AU - Thomas, Tina
AU - Ayoubkhani, Daniel
AU - Black, Russell
AU - Felton, Antonio
AU - Crees, Megan
AU - Jones, Joel
AU - Robotham, Julie V.
AU - Birrell, Paul
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2024.
PY - 2024/12
Y1 - 2024/12
N2 - Population-representative estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence and antibody levels in specific geographic areas at different time points are needed to optimise policy responses. However, even population-wide surveys are potentially impacted by biases arising from differences in participation rates across key groups. Here, we used spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification models to UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) to obtain representative estimates of PCR positivity (6,496,052 tests) and antibody prevalence (1,941,333 tests) for different regions, ages and ethnicities (7-December-2020 to 4-May-2022). Not accounting for vaccination status through post-stratification led to small underestimation of PCR positivity, but more substantial overestimations of antibody levels in the population (up to 21 percentage points), particularly in groups with low vaccine uptake in the general population. There was marked variation in the relative contribution of different areas and age-groups to each wave. Future analyses of infectious disease surveys should take into account major drivers of outcomes of interest that may also influence participation, with vaccination being an important factor to consider.
AB - Population-representative estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence and antibody levels in specific geographic areas at different time points are needed to optimise policy responses. However, even population-wide surveys are potentially impacted by biases arising from differences in participation rates across key groups. Here, we used spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification models to UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) to obtain representative estimates of PCR positivity (6,496,052 tests) and antibody prevalence (1,941,333 tests) for different regions, ages and ethnicities (7-December-2020 to 4-May-2022). Not accounting for vaccination status through post-stratification led to small underestimation of PCR positivity, but more substantial overestimations of antibody levels in the population (up to 21 percentage points), particularly in groups with low vaccine uptake in the general population. There was marked variation in the relative contribution of different areas and age-groups to each wave. Future analyses of infectious disease surveys should take into account major drivers of outcomes of interest that may also influence participation, with vaccination being an important factor to consider.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85196914979&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-024-49201-4
DO - 10.1038/s41467-024-49201-4
M3 - Article
C2 - 38914564
AN - SCOPUS:85196914979
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 15
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
IS - 1
M1 - 5340
ER -