Impact of COVID-19 social distancing measures on future incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in England and Wales: A mathematical modelling study

Yoon Hong Choi*, Elizabeth Miller

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Objectives: In January 2020, the UK moved to a 1+1 schedule for the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) with a single priming dose at 3-month and a 12-month booster. We modelled the impact on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) out to 2030/2031 of reductions in PCV13 coverage and population mixing associated with restrictions on non-essential healthcare visits and social distancing measures introduced in 2020/2021 to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. 

Design: Using an existing model of pneumococcal transmission in England and Wales, we simulated the impact of a 40% reduction in coverage and a 40% reduction in mixing between and within age groups during two lockdowns in spring 2020 and autumn/winter 2020/2021. More and less extreme reductions in coverage and mixing were explored in a sensitivity analysis. 

Main outcome measures: Predicted annual numbers of IPD cases under different coverage and mixing reduction scenarios with uncertainty intervals (UIs) generated from minimum and maximum values of the model predictions using 500 parameter sets. 

Results: The model predicted that any increase in IPD cases resulting from a reduction in PCV13 coverage would be more than offset by a reduction in pneumococcal transmission due to social distancing measures and that overall reductions in IPD cases will persist for a few years after resumption of normal mixing. The net reduction in cumulative IPD cases over the five epidemiological years from July 2019 was predicted to be 13 494 (UI 12 211, 14 676) all ages. Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analysis. 

Conclusion: COVID-19 lockdowns are predicted to have had a profound effect on pneumococcal transmission resulting in a reduction in pneumococcal carriage prevalence and IPD incidence for up to 5 years after the end of the lockdown period. Carriage studies will be informative in confirming the predicted impact of the lockdown measures after they have been lifted.

Original languageEnglish
Article number045380
Number of pages6
JournalBMJ Open
Volume11
Issue number9
Early online date28 Sep 2021
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 28 Sep 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information: EM is funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Immunisation at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (Grant Reference NIHR200929).

Open Access: This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to copy, redistribute, remix, transform and build upon this work for any purpose, provided the original work is properly cited, a link to the licence is given, and indication of whether changes were made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

Publisher Copyright: © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.

Citation: Choi YH, Miller E. Impact of COVID-19 social distancing measures on future incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in England and Wales: a mathematical modelling study. BMJ Open 2021;11:e045380.

DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045380

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • epidemiology
  • infectious diseases
  • public health

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