Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators

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    Abstract

    Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1789-1858
    Number of pages70
    JournalThe Lancet
    Volume392
    Issue number10159
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 10 Nov 2018

    Bibliographical note

    Funding Information:
    Research reported in this publication was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the University of Melbourne, Public Health England, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, the National Institute on Ageing of the National Institutes of Health (award P30AG047845) , and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health (award R01MH110163) . The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the funders. We thank the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, done by the National Research University Higher School of Economics and ZAO Demoscope together with the Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the Institute of Sociology RAS, for making these data available. Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) is an international study carried out in collaboration with WHO/EURO. The international coordinator of the 1997–98, 2001–02, 2005–06, and 2009–10 surveys was Candace Currie and the databank managers were Bente Wold for the 1997–98 survey and Oddrun Samdal for the following surveys. A list of principal investigators in each country can be found on the HBSC website . The Health and Retirement Study is sponsored by the National Institute on Aging (grant number NIA U01AG009740) and is done by the University of Michigan. This research uses data from Add Health, a programme project designed by J Richard Udry, Peter S Bearman, and Kathleen Mullan Harris, and funded by grant P01-HD31921 from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, with cooperative funding from 17 other agencies. Special acknowledgment is due to Ronald R Rindfuss and Barbara Entwisle for assistance in the original design of Add Health. People interested in obtaining data files from Add Health should contact Add Health, Carolina Population Center, 123 W. Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-2524 ( [email protected] ). No direct support was received from grant P01-HD31921 for this analysis. Researchers interested in using TILDA data can access the data for free from the following sites: Irish Social Science Data Archive at University College Dublin (http://www.ucd.ie/issda/data/tilda) and Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research at the University of Michigan (http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/ICPSR/studies/34315). Data for this research was provided by MEASURE Evaluation, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of USAID, the US Government, or MEASURE Evaluation. This research used data from the National Health Survey 2003. We are grateful to the Ministry of Health of Chile, the survey copyright owner, for allowing us to have the database. All results of the study are those of the authors and in no way committed to the Ministry. This work was supported by the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study (Contract No. N01-HC-25195). The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers of GBD 2017 access to relevant data in accordance with license number SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law, 2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. This paper uses data from SHARE Waves 1, 2, 3 (SHARELIFE), 4, 5 and 6 (DOIs: 10.6103/SHARE.w1.611, 10.6103/SHARE.w2.611, 10.6103/SHARE.w3.611, 10.6103/SHARE.w4.611, 10.6103/SHARE.w5.611, 10.6103/SHARE.w6.611); see Börsch-Supan et al (2013) for methodological details. The SHARE data collection has been primarily funded by the European Commission through FP5 (QLK6-CT-2001-00360), FP6 (SHARE-I3: RII-CT-2006-062193, COMPARE: CIT5-CT-2005-028857, SHARELIFE: CIT4-CT-2006-028812) and FP7 (SHARE-PREP: N°211909, SHARE-LEAP: N°227822, SHARE M4: N°261982). Additional funding from the German Ministry of Education and Research, the Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science, the US National Institute on Aging (U01_AG09740-13S2, P01_AG005842, P01_AG08291, P30_AG12815, R21_AG025169, Y1-AG-4553-01, IAG_BSR06-11, OGHA_04-064, HHSN271201300071C) , and from various national funding sources is gratefully acknowledged by SHARE. This study was realised using data collected by the Swiss Household Panel, which is based at the Swiss Centre of Expertise in the Social Sciences FORS. The project is financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation. Data reported here were supplied by the United States Renal Data System. The interpretation and reporting of these data are the responsibility of the authors and in no way should be seen as an official policy or interpretation of the US Government.

    Funding Information:
    Carl Abelardo Antonio reports personal fees from Johnson & Johnson (Philippines). Yannick Bejot reports grants and personal fees from AstraZeneca and Boehringer-Ingelheim and personal fees from Daiichi-Sankyo, BMS, Pfizer, Medtronic, Bayer, Novex pharma, and Merck Sharp & Dohme. Cyrus Cooper reports personal fees from Alliance for Better Bone Health, Amgen, Eli Lilly, GlaxoSmithKline, Medtronic, Merck &Co, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Servier, Takeda, and UCB. Louisa Degenhardt reports grants from Indivior, Mundipharma, and Seqirus. Seana Gall reports grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the National Heart Foundation of Australia. Panniyammakal Jeemon reports a Clinical and Public Health Intermediate Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust–DBT India Alliance (2015–20). Jacek Jóźwiak reports a grant from Valeant, personal fees from Valeant, ALAB Laboratoria and Amgen, and non-financial support from Microlife and Servier. Nicholas Kassebaum reports personal fees and other support from Vifor Pharmaceuticals. Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi reports grants from NHS Research Scotland, the Medical Research Council, and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office. Jeffrey Lazarus reports personal fees from Janssen and CEPHEID and grants and personal fees from AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, and Merck Sharp & Dohme. Stefan Lorkowski reports personal fees from Amgen, Berlin-Chemie, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi-Aventis, Synlab, Unilever, and non-financial support from Preventicus. Winfried März reports grants and personal fees from Siemens Diagnostics, Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Danone Research, Pfizer, BASF, Numares, and Berline-Chemie; personal fees from Hoffmann LaRoche, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Sanofi, and Synageva; grants from Abbott Diagnostics; and other support from Synlab. Walter Mendoza is currently a Program Analyst for Population and Development at the Peru Country Office of the United Nations Population Fund. Ted Miller reports an evaluation contract from AB InBev Foundation. Maarten Postma reports grants from Mundipharma, Bayer, BMS, AstraZeneca, ARTEG, and AscA; grants and personal fees from Sigma Tau, Merck Sharp & Dohme, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Novavax, Ingress Health, AbbVie, and Sanofi; personal fees from Quintiles, Astellas, Mapi, OptumInsight, Novartis, Swedish Orphan, Innoval, Jansen, Intercept, and Pharmerit, and stock ownership in Ingress Health and Pharmacoeconomics Advice Groningen. Kazem Rahimi reports grants from the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, the Economic and Social Research Council, and Oxford Martin School. Kenji Shibuya reports grants from the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare and from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology. Mark Shrime reports grants from Mercy Ships and Damon Runyon Cancer Research Foundation. Jasvinder Singh reports consulting for Horizon, Fidia, UBM, Medscape, WebMD, the National Institutes of Health, and the American College of Rheumatology; they serve as the principal investigator for an investigator-initiated study funded by Horizon pharmaceuticals through a grant to DINORA, a 501c3 entity; they are on the steering committee of OMERACT, an international organisation that develops measures for clinical trials and receives arms-length funding from 36 pharmaceutical companies. Jeffrey Stanaway reports a grant from Merck & Co. Denis Xavier reports grants from Cadila Pharmaceuticals, Boehringer Ingelheim, Sanofi Aventis, Pfizer, and Bristol-Myers Squibb.

    Publisher Copyright:
    Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

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