Estimating the impact of childhood influenza vaccination programmes in England and Wales

Emilia Vynnycky*, Richard Pitman, Ruby Siddiqui, Nigel Gay, W. John Edmunds

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    63 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    There is increasing interest in routine vaccination of children against influenza. We use an age-structured model to demonstrate that the long-term incidence of influenza A could decrease by 11-21% in the overall population by vaccinating individuals aged 6 to <24 months, and by 22-38% and 65-97% through targeting those aged 6 to <60 months and 6 months to 16 years, respectively. The corresponding reductions predicted for influenza B were 25-35%, 44-69% and 85-96%, respectively. These results are sensitive to assumptions about contact patterns and several parameters, including the vaccine efficacy among those aged <24 months, require further study. Consistently high levels of vaccination coverage among pre-school children has the potential to bring benefits to both those vaccinated and the community.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)5321-5330
    Number of pages10
    JournalVaccine
    Volume26
    Issue number41
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 26 Sep 2008

    Keywords

    • Influenza
    • Modelling
    • Vaccination

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