TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimating the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory and hospital capacity requirements in South West England
T2 - A mathematical modelling framework
AU - Booton, Ross D.
AU - Macgregor, Louis
AU - Vass, Lucy
AU - Looker, Katharine J.
AU - Hyams, Catherine
AU - Bright, Philip D.
AU - Harding, Irasha
AU - Lazarus, Rajeka
AU - Hamilton, Fergus
AU - Lawson, Daniel
AU - Danon, Leon
AU - Pratt, Adrian
AU - Wood, Richard
AU - Brooks-Pollock, Ellen
AU - Turner, Katherine M.E.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020.
PY - 2021/1/7
Y1 - 2021/1/7
N2 - Objectives: To develop a regional model of COVID-19 dynamics for use in estimating the number of infections, deaths and required acute and intensive care (IC) beds using the South West England (SW) as an example case. Design: Open-source age-structured variant of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental mathematical model. Latin hypercube sampling and maximum likelihood estimation were used to calibrate to cumulative cases and cumulative deaths. Setting SW at a time considered early in the pandemic, where National Health Service authorities required evidence to guide localised planning and support decision-making. Participants: Publicly available data on patients with COVID-19. Primary and secondary outcome measures The expected numbers of infected cases, deaths due to COVID-19 infection, patient occupancy of acute and IC beds and the reproduction ('R') number over time. Results: SW model projections indicate that, as of 11 May 2020 (when 'lockdown' measures were eased), 5793 (95% credible interval (CrI) 2003 to 12 051) individuals were still infectious (0.10% of the total SW population, 95% CrI 0.04% to 0.22%), and a total of 189 048 (95% CrI 141 580 to 277 955) had been infected with the virus (either asymptomatically or symptomatically), but recovered, which is 3.4% (95% CrI 2.5% to 5.0%) of the SW population. The total number of patients in acute and IC beds in the SW on 11 May 2020 was predicted to be 701 (95% CrI 169 to 1543) and 110 (95% CrI 8 to 464), respectively. The R value in SW was predicted to be 2.6 (95% CrI 2.0 to 3.2) prior to any interventions, with social distancing reducing this to 2.3 (95% CrI 1.8 to 2.9) and lockdown/school closures further reducing the R value to 0.6 (95% CrI 0.5 to 0.7). Conclusions: The developed model has proved a valuable asset for regional healthcare services. The model will be used further in the SW as the pandemic evolves, and - as open-source software - is portable to healthcare systems in other geographies.
AB - Objectives: To develop a regional model of COVID-19 dynamics for use in estimating the number of infections, deaths and required acute and intensive care (IC) beds using the South West England (SW) as an example case. Design: Open-source age-structured variant of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental mathematical model. Latin hypercube sampling and maximum likelihood estimation were used to calibrate to cumulative cases and cumulative deaths. Setting SW at a time considered early in the pandemic, where National Health Service authorities required evidence to guide localised planning and support decision-making. Participants: Publicly available data on patients with COVID-19. Primary and secondary outcome measures The expected numbers of infected cases, deaths due to COVID-19 infection, patient occupancy of acute and IC beds and the reproduction ('R') number over time. Results: SW model projections indicate that, as of 11 May 2020 (when 'lockdown' measures were eased), 5793 (95% credible interval (CrI) 2003 to 12 051) individuals were still infectious (0.10% of the total SW population, 95% CrI 0.04% to 0.22%), and a total of 189 048 (95% CrI 141 580 to 277 955) had been infected with the virus (either asymptomatically or symptomatically), but recovered, which is 3.4% (95% CrI 2.5% to 5.0%) of the SW population. The total number of patients in acute and IC beds in the SW on 11 May 2020 was predicted to be 701 (95% CrI 169 to 1543) and 110 (95% CrI 8 to 464), respectively. The R value in SW was predicted to be 2.6 (95% CrI 2.0 to 3.2) prior to any interventions, with social distancing reducing this to 2.3 (95% CrI 1.8 to 2.9) and lockdown/school closures further reducing the R value to 0.6 (95% CrI 0.5 to 0.7). Conclusions: The developed model has proved a valuable asset for regional healthcare services. The model will be used further in the SW as the pandemic evolves, and - as open-source software - is portable to healthcare systems in other geographies.
KW - epidemiology
KW - infection control
KW - public health
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85099194790&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-041536
DO - 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-041536
M3 - Article
C2 - 33414147
AN - SCOPUS:85099194790
SN - 2044-6055
VL - 11
JO - BMJ Open
JF - BMJ Open
IS - 1
M1 - e041536
ER -
