Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity in China Using Catalytic Models Based on Serological Data

Ning Li; Haidong Li; Zhengji Chen; Huan Xiong; Zhibo Li; Tao Wei; Wei Liu; Xu Sheng Zhang

doi:10.3390/tropicalmed8020116

Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity in China Using Catalytic Models Based on Serological Data

Ning Li, Haidong Li, Zhengji Chen, Huan Xiong, Zhibo Li, Tao Wei, Wei Liu, Xu Sheng Zhang^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

In recent decades, the global incidence of dengue has risen sharply, with more than 75% of infected people showing mild or no symptoms. Since the year 2000, dengue in China has spread quickly. At this stage, there is an urgent need to fully understand its transmission intensity and spread in China. Serological data provide reliable evidence for symptomatic and recessive infections. Through a literature search, we included 23 studies that collected age-specific serological dengue data released from 1980 to 2021 in China. Fitting four catalytic models to these data, we distinguished the transmission mechanisms by deviation information criterion and estimated force of infection and basic reproduction number (R₀), important parameters for quantifying transmission intensity. We found that transmission intensity varies over age in most of the study populations, and attenuation of antibody protection is identified in some study populations; the R₀ of dengue in China is between 1.04–2.33. Due to the scarceness of the data, the temporal trend cannot be identified, but data shows that transmission intensity weakened from coastal to inland areas and from southern to northern areas in China if assuming it remained temporally steady during the study period. The results should be useful for the effective control of dengue in China.

Original language	English
Article number	116
Journal	Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease
Volume	8
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed8020116
Publication status	Published - 14 Feb 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information: The work was jointly supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 81860607) and the Innovative Research Team of Yunnan Province (No. 2019(6)), China. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, the decision to publish, or the preparation of the manuscript.

Open Access: This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Publisher Copyright: © 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

Citation: Li, N.; Li, H.; Chen, Z.; Xiong, H.; Li, Z.; Wei, T.; Liu, W.; Zhang, X.-S. Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity in China Using Catalytic Models Based on Serological Data. Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2023, 8, 116. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed8020116

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed8020116

Keywords

Bayesian inference
catalytic model
dengue
mathematical modelling
serological data
transmission intensity

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Li2023EstimatingDengueTransmissionIntensityInChinaUsingCatalyticModelsBasedOnSerologicalDataTropMedInfectDisFinal published version, 2.5 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity in China Using Catalytic Models Based on Serological Data",

abstract = "In recent decades, the global incidence of dengue has risen sharply, with more than 75% of infected people showing mild or no symptoms. Since the year 2000, dengue in China has spread quickly. At this stage, there is an urgent need to fully understand its transmission intensity and spread in China. Serological data provide reliable evidence for symptomatic and recessive infections. Through a literature search, we included 23 studies that collected age-specific serological dengue data released from 1980 to 2021 in China. Fitting four catalytic models to these data, we distinguished the transmission mechanisms by deviation information criterion and estimated force of infection and basic reproduction number (R0), important parameters for quantifying transmission intensity. We found that transmission intensity varies over age in most of the study populations, and attenuation of antibody protection is identified in some study populations; the R0 of dengue in China is between 1.04–2.33. Due to the scarceness of the data, the temporal trend cannot be identified, but data shows that transmission intensity weakened from coastal to inland areas and from southern to northern areas in China if assuming it remained temporally steady during the study period. The results should be useful for the effective control of dengue in China.",

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author = "Ning Li and Haidong Li and Zhengji Chen and Huan Xiong and Zhibo Li and Tao Wei and Wei Liu and Zhang, {Xu Sheng}",

note = "Funding Information: The work was jointly supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 81860607) and the Innovative Research Team of Yunnan Province (No. 2019(6)), China. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, the decision to publish, or the preparation of the manuscript. Open Access: This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Citation: Li, N.; Li, H.; Chen, Z.; Xiong, H.; Li, Z.; Wei, T.; Liu, W.; Zhang, X.-S. Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity in China Using Catalytic Models Based on Serological Data. Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2023, 8, 116. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed8020116 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed8020116",

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AU - Wei, Tao

AU - Liu, Wei

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N1 - Funding Information: The work was jointly supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 81860607) and the Innovative Research Team of Yunnan Province (No. 2019(6)), China. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, the decision to publish, or the preparation of the manuscript. Open Access: This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Publisher Copyright: © 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Citation: Li, N.; Li, H.; Chen, Z.; Xiong, H.; Li, Z.; Wei, T.; Liu, W.; Zhang, X.-S. Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity in China Using Catalytic Models Based on Serological Data. Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2023, 8, 116. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed8020116 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed8020116

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N2 - In recent decades, the global incidence of dengue has risen sharply, with more than 75% of infected people showing mild or no symptoms. Since the year 2000, dengue in China has spread quickly. At this stage, there is an urgent need to fully understand its transmission intensity and spread in China. Serological data provide reliable evidence for symptomatic and recessive infections. Through a literature search, we included 23 studies that collected age-specific serological dengue data released from 1980 to 2021 in China. Fitting four catalytic models to these data, we distinguished the transmission mechanisms by deviation information criterion and estimated force of infection and basic reproduction number (R0), important parameters for quantifying transmission intensity. We found that transmission intensity varies over age in most of the study populations, and attenuation of antibody protection is identified in some study populations; the R0 of dengue in China is between 1.04–2.33. Due to the scarceness of the data, the temporal trend cannot be identified, but data shows that transmission intensity weakened from coastal to inland areas and from southern to northern areas in China if assuming it remained temporally steady during the study period. The results should be useful for the effective control of dengue in China.

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KW - mathematical modelling

KW - serological data

KW - transmission intensity

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ER -

Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity in China Using Catalytic Models Based on Serological Data

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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