TY - JOUR
T1 - Ebola virus disease in West Africa - The first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections
AU - Aylward, Bruce
AU - Barboza, Philippe
AU - Bawo, Luke
AU - Bertherat, Eric
AU - Bilivogui, Pepe
AU - Blake, Isobel
AU - Brennan, Rick
AU - Briand, Sylvie
AU - Chakauya, Jethro Magwati
AU - Chitala, Kennedy
AU - Conteh, Roland M.
AU - Cori, Anne
AU - Croisier, Alice
AU - Dangou, Jean Marie
AU - Diallo, Boubacar
AU - Donnelly, Christl A.
AU - Dye, Christopher
AU - Eckmanns, Tim
AU - Ferguson, Neil M.
AU - Formenty, Pierre
AU - Fuhrer, Caroline
AU - Fukuda, Keiji
AU - Garske, Tini
AU - Gasasira, Alex
AU - Gbanyan, Stephen
AU - Graaff, Peter
AU - Heleze, Emmanuel
AU - Jambai, Amara
AU - Jombart, Thibaut
AU - Kasolo, Francis
AU - Kadiobo, Albert Mbule
AU - Keita, Sakoba
AU - Kertesz, Daniel
AU - Koné, Moussa
AU - Lane, Chris
AU - Markoff, Jered
AU - Massaquoi, Moses
AU - Mills, Harriet
AU - Mulba, John Mike
AU - Musa, Emmanuel
AU - Myhre, Joel
AU - Nasidi, Abdusalam
AU - Nilles, Eric
AU - Nouvellet, Pierre
AU - Nshimirimana, Deo
AU - Nuttall, Isabelle
AU - Nyenswah, Tolbert
AU - Olu, Olushayo
AU - Pendergast, Scott
AU - Perea, William
AU - Polonsky, Jonathan
AU - Riley, Steven
AU - Ronveaux, Olivier
AU - Sakoba, Keita
AU - Krishnan, Ravi Santhana Gopala
AU - Senga, Mikiko
AU - Shuaib, Faisal
AU - Van Kerkhove, Maria D.
AU - Vaz, Rui
AU - Kannangarage, Niluka Wijekoon
AU - Yoti, Zabulon
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 Massachusetts Medical Society. All rights reserved.
PY - 2014/10/16
Y1 - 2014/10/16
N2 - Results: The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total.Background On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a "public health emergency of international concern."Methods: By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa - Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14.Conclusions: These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months.
AB - Results: The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total.Background On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a "public health emergency of international concern."Methods: By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa - Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14.Conclusions: These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84908072433&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1056/NEJMoa1411100
DO - 10.1056/NEJMoa1411100
M3 - Article
C2 - 25244186
AN - SCOPUS:84908072433
SN - 0028-4793
VL - 371
SP - 1481
EP - 1495
JO - New England Journal of Medicine
JF - New England Journal of Medicine
IS - 16
ER -
