TY - JOUR
T1 - Dynamics of competing SARS-CoV-2 variants during the Omicron epidemic in England
AU - Eales, Oliver
AU - de Oliveira Martins, Leonardo
AU - Page, Andrew J.
AU - Wang, Haowei
AU - Bodinier, Barbara
AU - Tang, David
AU - Haw, David
AU - Jonnerby, Jakob
AU - Atchison, Christina
AU - Ashby, Deborah
AU - Barclay, Wendy
AU - Taylor, Graham
AU - Cooke, Graham
AU - Ward, Helen
AU - Darzi, Ara
AU - Riley, Steven
AU - Elliott, Paul
AU - Donnelly, Christl A.
AU - Chadeau-Hyam, Marc
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12
Y1 - 2022/12
N2 - The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterised by the regular emergence of genomic variants. With natural and vaccine-induced population immunity at high levels, evolutionary pressure favours variants better able to evade SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies. The Omicron variant (first detected in November 2021) exhibited a high degree of immune evasion, leading to increased infection rates worldwide. However, estimates of the magnitude of this Omicron wave have often relied on routine testing data, which are prone to several biases. Using data from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, a series of cross-sectional surveys assessing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, we estimated the dynamics of England’s Omicron wave (from 9 September 2021 to 1 March 2022). We estimate an initial peak in national Omicron prevalence of 6.89% (5.34%, 10.61%) during January 2022, followed by a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections as the more transmissible Omicron sub-lineage, BA.2 replaced BA.1 and BA.1.1. Assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitudes may become the ‘new normal’.
AB - The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterised by the regular emergence of genomic variants. With natural and vaccine-induced population immunity at high levels, evolutionary pressure favours variants better able to evade SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies. The Omicron variant (first detected in November 2021) exhibited a high degree of immune evasion, leading to increased infection rates worldwide. However, estimates of the magnitude of this Omicron wave have often relied on routine testing data, which are prone to several biases. Using data from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, a series of cross-sectional surveys assessing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, we estimated the dynamics of England’s Omicron wave (from 9 September 2021 to 1 March 2022). We estimate an initial peak in national Omicron prevalence of 6.89% (5.34%, 10.61%) during January 2022, followed by a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections as the more transmissible Omicron sub-lineage, BA.2 replaced BA.1 and BA.1.1. Assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitudes may become the ‘new normal’.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85135174879&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-022-32096-4
DO - 10.1038/s41467-022-32096-4
M3 - Article
C2 - 35902613
AN - SCOPUS:85135174879
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 13
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
IS - 1
M1 - 4375
ER -
