Deterministic epidemic models overestimate the basic reproduction number of observed outbreaks

Wajid Ali, Christopher E. Overton, Robert R. Wilkinson, Kieran J. Sharkey*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The basic reproduction number, R0, is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating R0 from incidence data early in the epidemic can lead to an over-estimation of this quantity. In particular, when fitting deterministic models to estimate the rate of spread, we do not account for the stochastic nature of epidemics and that, given the same system, some outbreaks may lead to epidemics and some may not. Typically, an observed epidemic that we wish to control is a major outbreak. This amounts to implicit selection for major outbreaks which leads to the over-estimation problem. We formally characterised the split between major and minor outbreaks by using Otsu's method which provides us with a working definition. We show that by conditioning a ‘deterministic’ model on major outbreaks, we can more reliably estimate the basic reproduction number from an observed epidemic trajectory.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)680-688
Number of pages9
JournalInfectious Disease Modelling
Volume9
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2024
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Authors

Keywords

  • Conditioned epidemic
  • Estimating R
  • Major outbreak
  • Simple birth-death process
  • Stochastic fade-out

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