TY - JOUR
T1 - Comparison of smallpox outbreak control strategies using a spatial metapopulation model
AU - Hall, Ian
AU - Egan, Joseph R.
AU - Barrass, I.
AU - Gani, R.
AU - Leach, Stephen
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2008 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2007/10
Y1 - 2007/10
N2 - To determine the potential benefits of regionally targeted mass vaccination as an adjunct to other smallpox control strategies we employed a spatial metapopulation patch model based on the administrative districts of Great Britain. We counted deaths due to smallpox and to vaccination to identify strategies that minimized total deaths. Results confirm that case isolation, and the tracing, vaccination and observation of case contacts can be optimal for control but only for optimistic assumptions concerning, for example, the basic reproduction number for smallpox (R0=3) and smaller numbers of index cases (∼10). For a wider range of scenarios, including larger numbers of index cases and higher reproduction numbers, the addition of mass vaccination targeted only to infected districts provided an appreciable benefit (5-80% fewer deaths depending on where the outbreak started with a trigger value of 1-10 isolated symptomatic individuals within a district).
AB - To determine the potential benefits of regionally targeted mass vaccination as an adjunct to other smallpox control strategies we employed a spatial metapopulation patch model based on the administrative districts of Great Britain. We counted deaths due to smallpox and to vaccination to identify strategies that minimized total deaths. Results confirm that case isolation, and the tracing, vaccination and observation of case contacts can be optimal for control but only for optimistic assumptions concerning, for example, the basic reproduction number for smallpox (R0=3) and smaller numbers of index cases (∼10). For a wider range of scenarios, including larger numbers of index cases and higher reproduction numbers, the addition of mass vaccination targeted only to infected districts provided an appreciable benefit (5-80% fewer deaths depending on where the outbreak started with a trigger value of 1-10 isolated symptomatic individuals within a district).
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=34748894267&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1017/S0950268806007783
DO - 10.1017/S0950268806007783
M3 - Article
C2 - 17222358
AN - SCOPUS:34748894267
SN - 0950-2688
VL - 135
SP - 1133
EP - 1144
JO - Epidemiology and Infection
JF - Epidemiology and Infection
IS - 7
ER -