Combined risk factors and risk of upper gastrointestinal cancer mortality in the Linxian general population

We aimed to explore the association of combined risk factors with risk of death from upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancer, including esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), gastric cardia carcinoma (GCC) and gastric noncardia carcinoma (GNCC) in the Linxian Nutrition Intervention Trial (NIT) cohort. The NIT cohort included 29 584 healthy adults. A combined risk score (CRS) was calculated using a point system method based on 10 risk factors collected at baseline, including gender, smoking, alcohol drinking, body mass index, family history of UGI cancer, drinking tap water, tooth loss and consumption of fresh fruit, eggs and meat. Possible score ranged from 0 to 31, and higher score indicated as poorer health status. Subjects were divided into three groups by the CRS (<12 points, 12 to 20 points and >20 points). The group of CRS <12 points was considered as the reference. During the 30-year follow-up, we identified 4553 UGI cancer deaths. Compared to subjects with a CRS <12 points, the adjusted HRs for CRS of 12 to 20 points and >20 points were 1.69 (95% CI: 1.56-1.83) and 3.06 (95% CI: 2.82-3.33) for UGI cancer mortality, respectively (P_trend <.001). Comparable associations were also observed for ESCC, GCC and GNCC mortality. Results remained similar across different age groups (P_interaction >.05). All HRs observed in the second half follow-up period were stronger than that observed in the first half follow-up period. Our study indicated that higher CRS was associated with increased risk of UGI cancer mortality. Appropriate measures should be taken to reduce unhealthy lifestyles.