TY - JOUR
T1 - Changes in transmission of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in England inferred from seroprevalence data
AU - Pons-Salort, Margarita
AU - Lambert, Ben
AU - Kamau, Everlyn
AU - Pebody, Richard
AU - Harvala, Heli
AU - Simmonds, Peter
AU - Grassly, Nicholas C.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Pons-Salort et al.
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - The factors leading to the global emergence of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 as a cause of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) in children are unknown. To investigate potential changes in virus transmissibility or population susceptibility, we measured the seroprevalence of EV-D68-specific neutralising antibodies in serum samples collected in England in 2006, 2011, and 2017. Using catalytic mathematical models, we estimate an approximately 50% increase in the annual probability of infection over the 10-year study period, coinciding with the emergence of clade B around 2009. Despite such increase in transmission, seroprevalence data suggest that the virus was already widely circulating before the AFM outbreaks and the increase of infections by age cannot explain the observed number of AFM cases. Therefore, the acquisition of or an increase in neuropathogenicity would be additionally required to explain the emergence of outbreaks of AFM. Our results provide evidence that changes in enterovirus phenotypes cause major changes in disease epidemiology.
AB - The factors leading to the global emergence of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 as a cause of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) in children are unknown. To investigate potential changes in virus transmissibility or population susceptibility, we measured the seroprevalence of EV-D68-specific neutralising antibodies in serum samples collected in England in 2006, 2011, and 2017. Using catalytic mathematical models, we estimate an approximately 50% increase in the annual probability of infection over the 10-year study period, coinciding with the emergence of clade B around 2009. Despite such increase in transmission, seroprevalence data suggest that the virus was already widely circulating before the AFM outbreaks and the increase of infections by age cannot explain the observed number of AFM cases. Therefore, the acquisition of or an increase in neuropathogenicity would be additionally required to explain the emergence of outbreaks of AFM. Our results provide evidence that changes in enterovirus phenotypes cause major changes in disease epidemiology.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85163908191&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.7554/eLife.76609
DO - 10.7554/eLife.76609
M3 - Article
C2 - 37294299
AN - SCOPUS:85163908191
SN - 2050-084X
VL - 12
JO - eLife
JF - eLife
M1 - e76609
ER -