Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February

Daniel J. Grint*, Kevin Wing, Elizabeth Williamson, Helen I. McDonald, Krishnan Bhaskaran, David Evans, Stephen J.W. Evans, Alex J. Walker, George Hickman, Emily Nightingale, Anna Schultze, Christopher T. Rentsch, Chris Bates, Jonathan Cockburn, Helen J. Curtis, Caroline E. Morton, Sebastian Bacon, Simon Davy, Angel Y.S. Wong, Amir MehrkarLaurie Tomlinson, Ian J. Douglas, Rohini Mathur, Paula Blomquist, Brian MacKenna, Peter Ingelsby, Richard Croker, John Parry, Frank Hester, Sam Harper, Nicholas J. DeVito, Will Hulme, John Tazare, Ben Goldacre, Liam Smeeth, Rosalind M. Eggo

*Corresponding author for this work

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    Abstract

    The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34-2.09; p<0.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28 days increased with age and comorbidities. This VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant of concern B.1.1.7 (VOC) was first identified in Kent, United Kingdom (UK) in autumn 2020. Early analysis suggests it is more transmissible than previously circulating forms (non-VOC) [1]. It is now the dominant strain throughout the UK and is increasing in prevalence across Europe [2]. Early reports of increased mortality have not included data on individuals' comorbidities, and this information is needed to facilitate pandemic planning. Certain PCR assays for SARS-CoV-2 do not amplify one of the spike protein gene targets in this VOC. Spike gene target failure (SGTF) is therefore a proxy for VOC identification, with greater than 95% sensitivity for VOC diagnosis during the period from 16 November to 11 January [3]. Working on behalf of NHS England, we estimate the risk of death following confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, comparing infection with VOC to non-VOC, after accounting for demographic factors and comorbidities. The code and configuration of our analysis is available online (github.com/opensafely/ sgtf-cfr-research).

    Original languageEnglish
    Article number2100256
    JournalEurosurveillance
    Volume26
    Issue number11
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2021

    Bibliographical note

    Funding Information:
    Rosalind Eggo is funded by HDR UK (grant: MR/S003975/1), MRC (grant: MC_PC 19065), NIHR (grant: NIHR200908).

    Funding Information:
    Funding: This work was supported by the Medical Research Council MR/V015737/1. TPP provided technical expertise and infrastructure within their data centre pro bono in the context of a national emergency.

    Publisher Copyright:
    © This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) Licence. You may share and adapt the material, but must give appropriate credit to the source, provide a link to the licence and indicate if changes were made.

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