Association of the Timing and Type of Acute Symptomatic Seizures With Poststroke Epilepsy and Mortality

BACKGROUND: Acute symptomatic seizures (ASyS) increase the risk of epilepsy and mortality after a stroke. The impact of the timing and type of ASyS remains unclear. METHODS: This multicenter cohort study included data from 9 centers between 2002 and 2018, with a final analysis in February 2024. The study included 4552 adults (2005 female; median age, 73 years) with ischemic stroke and no seizure history. Seizures were classified using International League Against Epilepsy definitions. We examined ASyS occurring within seven days after stroke. The main outcomes were all-cause mortality and epilepsy. Validation of the updated SeLECT score (SeLECT-ASyS) was performed in 3 independent cohorts (Switzerland, Argentina, and Japan) collected between 2012 and 2024, including 74 adults with ASyS. RESULTS: The 10-year risk of poststroke epilepsy ranged from 41% to 94%, and mortality from 36% to 100%, depending on ASyS type and timing. ASyS on stroke onset day had a higher epilepsy risk (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.3 [95% CI, 1.3-4.0]; P=0.003) compared with later ASyS. Status epilepticus had the highest epilepsy risk (aHR, 9.6 [95% CI, 3.5-26.7]; P<0.001), followed by focal to bilateral tonic-clonic seizures (aHR, 3.4 [95% CI, 1.9-6.3]; P<0.001). Mortality was higher in those with ASyS presenting as focal to bilateral tonic-clonic seizures on day 0 (aHR, 2.8 [95% CI, 1.4-5.6]; P=0.004) and status epilepticus (aHR, 14.2 [95% CI, 3.5-58.8]; P<0.001). The updated SeLECT-ASyS model, available as an application, outperformed a previous model in the derivation cohort (concordance statistics, 0.68 versus 0.58; P=0.02) and in the validation cohort (0.70 versus 0.50; P=0.18). CONCLUSIONS: ASyS timing and type significantly affect epilepsy and mortality risk after stroke, improving epilepsy prediction and guiding patient counseling.