An individual-based simulation of pneumonic plague transmission following an outbreak and the significance of intervention compliance

Andrew D.C. Williams, Ian M. Hall*, G. James Rubin, Richard Amlôt, Steve Leach

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The existence of primary pneumonic plague outbreaks raises concerns over the use of the causative bacteria as an aerosol-based bioweapon. We employed an individual-based model, parameterised using published personal contact information, to assess the severity of a deliberate release in a discrete community, under the influence of two proposed intervention strategies. We observed that the severity of the resulting epidemic is determined by the degree of personal compliance with said strategies, implying that prior preparedness activities are essential in order that public awareness and willingness to seek treatment is achieved quickly.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)95-102
Number of pages8
JournalEpidemics
Volume3
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2011

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was supported by the Home Office Counter Terrorism and Intelligence Directorate (grant number 43/05/81 ). A.D.C., I.M.H., R.A., and S.L. were also supported, through the Health Protection Agency, by the Department of Health for England and the E.U. FP7 project FLUMODCONT. G.J.R. is supported under the terms of a career development research training fellowship issued by the NIHR. The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsoring institutions.

Keywords

  • Bioterrorism
  • Mathematical model
  • Survey
  • Yersinia pestis

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