TY - JOUR
T1 - An evidence synthesis approach to estimating Hepatitis C prevalence in England and Wales
AU - De Angelis, Daniela
AU - Sweeting, M.
AU - Ades, A. E.
AU - Hickman, M.
AU - Hope, V.
AU - Ramsay, Mary
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - In England and Wales, routine monitoring has been consistently showing an increase in mortality and morbidity due to infection with the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV). However, the magnitude of the underlying epidemic is still the subject of debate. In this paper we present estimates of the number of individuals aged 15-59 chronically infected with HCV in 2003, derived from a Bayesian synthesis of information available from multiple sources on the size of the groups at risk for HCV and the risk specific anti-HCV prevalence. Results show that the number of chronic infections is of the order of 142,000 (95% CrI: 90,000, 231,000), with the majority (85%, 95% CrI: 74%, 93%) in injecting drug users and about 80% (95% CrI: 74%, 84%) in the age group 15-44.
AB - In England and Wales, routine monitoring has been consistently showing an increase in mortality and morbidity due to infection with the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV). However, the magnitude of the underlying epidemic is still the subject of debate. In this paper we present estimates of the number of individuals aged 15-59 chronically infected with HCV in 2003, derived from a Bayesian synthesis of information available from multiple sources on the size of the groups at risk for HCV and the risk specific anti-HCV prevalence. Results show that the number of chronic infections is of the order of 142,000 (95% CrI: 90,000, 231,000), with the majority (85%, 95% CrI: 74%, 93%) in injecting drug users and about 80% (95% CrI: 74%, 84%) in the age group 15-44.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=68449104763&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/0962280208094691
DO - 10.1177/0962280208094691
M3 - Article
C2 - 19036917
AN - SCOPUS:68449104763
VL - 18
SP - 361
EP - 379
JO - Statistical Methods in Medical Research
JF - Statistical Methods in Medical Research
SN - 0962-2802
IS - 4
ER -
