Ambulance service resource planning for extreme temperatures: Analysis of ambulance 999 calls during episodes of extreme temperature in London, UK

Giorgos Papadakis*, Zaid Chalabi, John Thornes

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The association between episodes of extreme temperature and ambulance 999 calls has not yet been properly quantified. In this study we propose a statistical physics-based method to estimate the true mean number of ambulance 999 calls during episodes of extreme temperatures. Simple arithmetic mean overestimates the true number of calls during such episodes. Specifically, we apply the physics-based framework of nonextensive statistical mechanics (NESM) for estimating the probability distribution of extreme events to model the positive daily variation of ambulance calls. In addition, we combine NESM with the partitioned multiobjective method (PMRM) to determine the true mean of the positive daily difference of calls during periods of extreme temperature. We show that the use of the standard mean overestimates the true mean number of ambulance calls during episodes of extreme temperature. It is important to correctly estimate the mean value of ambulance 999 calls during such episodes in order for the ambulance service to efficiently manage their resources.

Original languageEnglish
Article number182
JournalAtmosphere
Volume9
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 May 2018

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Acknowledgments: Research funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), and in collaboration with the University of Exeter, University College London, and the Met Office. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, the Department of Health or Public Health England. We would like to thank Leanne Smith, Dave Clarke, and Robin Hutchings of London Ambulance Service for their very helpful contributions and enthusiastic support.

Funding Information:
Research funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), and in collaboration with the University of Exeter, University College London, and the Met Office. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, the Department of Health or Public Health England. We would like to thank Leanne Smith, Dave Clarke, and Robin Hutchings of London Ambulance Service for their very helpful contributions and enthusiastic support.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 by the authors.

Keywords

  • Ambulance 999 calls
  • Extreme weather
  • London
  • Resource planning
  • UK

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