A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015

Ellen Brooks-Pollock; Leon Danon; Hester Korthals Altes; Jennifer A. Davidson; Andrew M.T. Pollock; Dick Van Soolingen; Colin Campbell; Maeve Lalor

doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007687

A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015

Ellen Brooks-Pollock^*, Leon Danon, Hester Korthals Altes, Jennifer A. Davidson, Andrew M.T. Pollock, Dick Van Soolingen, Colin Campbell, Maeve Lalor

^*Corresponding author for this work

Immunisation Hepatitis and Blood Safety

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Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health threat in low TB incidence countries, through a combination of reactivated disease and onward transmission. Using surveillance data from the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands (NL), we demonstrate a simple and predictable relationship between the probability of observing a cluster and its size (the number of cases with a single genotype). We demonstrate that the full range of observed cluster sizes can be described using a modified branching process model with the individual reproduction number following a Poisson lognormal distribution. We estimate that, on average, between 2010 and 2015, a TB case generated 0.41 (95% CrI 0.30,0.60) secondary cases in the UK, and 0.24 (0.14,0.48) secondary cases in the NL. A majority of cases did not generate any secondary cases. Recent transmission accounted for 39% (26%,60%) of UK cases and 23%(13%,37%) of NL cases. We predict that reducing UK transmission rates to those observed in the NL would result in 538(266,818) fewer cases annually in the UK. In conclusion, while TB in low incidence countries is strongly associated with reactivated infections, we demonstrate that recent transmission remains sufficient to warrant policies aimed at limiting local TB spread.

Original language	English
Article number	e1007687
Journal	PLoS Computational Biology
Volume	16
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007687
Publication status	Published - 27 Mar 2020

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
EBP was supported by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Evaluation of Interventions. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. LD gratefully acknowledges the financial support of The Alan Turing Institute under the EPSRC grant EP/ N510129/1. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Open Access: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Publisher Copyright: © 2020 Brooks-Pollock et al.

Citation: Brooks-Pollock E, Danon L, Korthals Altes H, Davidson JA, Pollock AMT, van Soolingen D, et al. (2020) A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015. PLoS Comput Biol 16(3): e1007687.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007687

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Brooks-Pollock2020AModelOfTuberculosisClusteringInLowIncidencePLoSComputBiolFinal published version, 1.39 MBLicence: CC BY

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Brooks-Pollock, E., Danon, L., Altes, H. K., Davidson, J. A., Pollock, A. M. T., Van Soolingen, D., Campbell, C., & Lalor, M. (2020). A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015. PLoS Computational Biology, 16(3), Article e1007687. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007687

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title = "A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015",

abstract = "Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health threat in low TB incidence countries, through a combination of reactivated disease and onward transmission. Using surveillance data from the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands (NL), we demonstrate a simple and predictable relationship between the probability of observing a cluster and its size (the number of cases with a single genotype). We demonstrate that the full range of observed cluster sizes can be described using a modified branching process model with the individual reproduction number following a Poisson lognormal distribution. We estimate that, on average, between 2010 and 2015, a TB case generated 0.41 (95% CrI 0.30,0.60) secondary cases in the UK, and 0.24 (0.14,0.48) secondary cases in the NL. A majority of cases did not generate any secondary cases. Recent transmission accounted for 39% (26%,60%) of UK cases and 23%(13%,37%) of NL cases. We predict that reducing UK transmission rates to those observed in the NL would result in 538(266,818) fewer cases annually in the UK. In conclusion, while TB in low incidence countries is strongly associated with reactivated infections, we demonstrate that recent transmission remains sufficient to warrant policies aimed at limiting local TB spread.",

author = "Ellen Brooks-Pollock and Leon Danon and Altes, {Hester Korthals} and Davidson, {Jennifer A.} and Pollock, {Andrew M.T.} and {Van Soolingen}, Dick and Colin Campbell and Maeve Lalor",

note = "Funding Information: EBP was supported by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Evaluation of Interventions. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. LD gratefully acknowledges the financial support of The Alan Turing Institute under the EPSRC grant EP/ N510129/1. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Open Access: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020 Brooks-Pollock et al. Citation: Brooks-Pollock E, Danon L, Korthals Altes H, Davidson JA, Pollock AMT, van Soolingen D, et al. (2020) A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015. PLoS Comput Biol 16(3): e1007687. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007687",

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AU - Pollock, Andrew M.T.

AU - Van Soolingen, Dick

AU - Campbell, Colin

AU - Lalor, Maeve

N1 - Funding Information: EBP was supported by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Evaluation of Interventions. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. LD gratefully acknowledges the financial support of The Alan Turing Institute under the EPSRC grant EP/ N510129/1. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Open Access: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 Brooks-Pollock et al. Citation: Brooks-Pollock E, Danon L, Korthals Altes H, Davidson JA, Pollock AMT, van Soolingen D, et al. (2020) A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015. PLoS Comput Biol 16(3): e1007687. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007687

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N2 - Tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health threat in low TB incidence countries, through a combination of reactivated disease and onward transmission. Using surveillance data from the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands (NL), we demonstrate a simple and predictable relationship between the probability of observing a cluster and its size (the number of cases with a single genotype). We demonstrate that the full range of observed cluster sizes can be described using a modified branching process model with the individual reproduction number following a Poisson lognormal distribution. We estimate that, on average, between 2010 and 2015, a TB case generated 0.41 (95% CrI 0.30,0.60) secondary cases in the UK, and 0.24 (0.14,0.48) secondary cases in the NL. A majority of cases did not generate any secondary cases. Recent transmission accounted for 39% (26%,60%) of UK cases and 23%(13%,37%) of NL cases. We predict that reducing UK transmission rates to those observed in the NL would result in 538(266,818) fewer cases annually in the UK. In conclusion, while TB in low incidence countries is strongly associated with reactivated infections, we demonstrate that recent transmission remains sufficient to warrant policies aimed at limiting local TB spread.

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A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015

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