A method to estimate the size and characteristics of HIV-positive populations using an individual-based stochastic simulation model

behalf of the SSOPHIE project working group in EuroCoord

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Abstract

It is important not only to collect epidemiologic data on HIV but to also fully utilize such information to understand the epidemic over time and to help inform and monitor the impact of policies and interventions. We describe and apply a novel method to estimate the size and characteristics of HIV-positive populations. The method was applied to data on men who have sex with men living in the UK and to a pseudo dataset to assess performance for different data availability. The individual-based simulation model was calibrated using an approximate Bayesian computation-based approach. In 2013, 48,310 (90% plausibility range: 39,900-45,560) men who have sex with men were estimated to be living with HIV in the UK, of whom 10,400 (6,160-17,350) were undiagnosed. There were an estimated 3,210 (1,730-5,350) infections per year on average between 2010 and 2013. Sixty-two percent of the total HIV-positive population are thought to have viral load>500 copies/ml. In the pseudo-epidemic example, HIV estimates have narrower plausibility ranges and are closer to the true number, the greater the data availability to calibrate the model. We demonstrate that our method can be applied to settings with less data, however plausibility ranges for estimates will be wider to reflect greater uncertainty of the data used to fit the model.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)247-256
Number of pages10
JournalEpidemiology
Volume27
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 28 Jan 2016

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under EuroCoord Grant Agreement No 260694. OR is supported by the Wellcome Trust (fellowship WR092311MF). The authors acknowledge the Public Health England (PHE) HIV surveillance team and the use of UCL Legion High Performance Computing Facility (Legion@UCL) in the completion of this work. SSOPHIE project working group in EuroCoord: Fumiyo Nakagawa, Alioum Ahmadou, Andrew Amato-Gauci, Alison Brown, Jan Albert, Daniela Bezemer, Valentina Cambiano, Colin Campbell, Jordi Casabona, Daniel Commenges, Mario Cortina Borja, Dominique Costagliola, Daniela de Angelis, Valerie Delpech, Andrea de Luca, Martin Donoghoe, Deborah Ford, Geoff Garnett, Peter Ghys, Tim Hallett, Jesper Kjaer, Roger Kouyos, Rebecca Lodwick, Jens Lundgren, Nikos Pantazis, Santi Perez-Hoyos, Patrizio Pezzotti, Anastasia Pharris, Chantal Quinten, Mika Salminen, Colette Smit, Colette Smith, Jonathan Sterne, Virginie Supervie, Rodolphe Thiebaut, Claire Thorne, Pat Tookey, Giota Touloumi, Ard van Sighem, Andrew Phillips. EuroCoord Executive Board: Fiona Burns, University College London, UK; Geneviève Che◯ne, University of Bordeaux, France; Dominique Costagliola (Scientific Coordinator), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, France; Carlo Giaquinto, Fondazione PENTA, Italy; Jesper Grarup, Region Hovedstaden, Denmark; Ole Kirk, Region Hovedstaden, Denmark; Laurence Meyer, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, France; Heather Bailey, University College London, UK; Alain Volny Anne, European AIDS Treatment Group, France; Alex Panteleev, St. Petersburg City AIDS Centre, Russian Federation; Andrew Phillips, University College London, UK, Kholoud Porter, University College London, UK; Claire Thorne, University College London, UK. EuroCoord Council of Partners: Jean-Pierre Aboulker, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, France; Jan Albert, Karolinska Institute, Sweden; Silvia Asandi, Romanian Angel Appeal Foundation, Romania; Geneviève Che◯ne, University of Bordeaux, France; Dominique Costagliola (chair), INSERM, France; Antonella d’Arminio Monforte, ICoNA Foundation, Italy; Stéphane De Wit, St. Pierre University Hospital, Belgium; Peter Reiss, Stichting HIV Monitoring, Netherlands; Julia Del Amo, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain; José Gatell, Fundació Privada Clínic per a la Recerca Bíomèdica, Spain; Carlo Giaquinto, Fondazione PENTA, Italy; Osamah Hamouda, Robert Koch Institut, Germany; Igor Karpov, University of Minsk, Belarus; Bruno Ledergerber, University of Zurich, Switzerland; Jens Lundgren, Region Hovedstaden, Denmark; Ruslan Malyuta, Perinatal Prevention of AIDS Initiative, Ukraine; Claus Møller, Cadpeople A/S, Denmark; Kholoud Porter, University College London, United Kingdom; Maria Prins, Academic Medical Centre, Netherlands; Aza Rakhmanova, St. Petersburg City AIDS Centre, Russian Federation; Jürgen Rockstroh, University of Bonn, Germany; Magda Rosinska, National Institute of Public Health, National Institute of Hygiene, Poland; Manjinder Sandhu, Genome Research Limited; Claire Thorne, University College London, UK; Giota Touloumi, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece; Alain Volny Anne, European AIDS Treatment Group, France. EuroCoord External Advisory Board: David Cooper, University of New South Wales, Australia; Nikos Dedes, Positive Voice, Greece; Kevin Fenton, Public Health England, USA; David Pizzuti, Gilead Sciences, USA; Marco Vitoria, World Health Organisation, Switzerland. EuroCoord Secretariat: Silvia Faggion, Fondazione PENTA, Italy; Lorraine Fradette, University College London, UK; Richard Frost, University College London, UK; Andrea Cartier, University College London, UK; Dorthe Raben, Region Hovedstaden, Denmark; Christine Schwimmer, University of Bordeaux, France; Martin Scott, UCL European Research & Innovation Office, UK.

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